The collapse in purchasing power closes shops: “52,000 have disappeared since 2019”

ROME. The collapse of purchasing power weighs more than online. The result is that 52,000 neighborhood shops have disappeared since 2019. And at this rate, another 73,000 will close by 2030, basically 18 a day. «We are facing an acceleration of the desertification process – Confesercenti denounces – which is affected by the double crisis experienced by the sector which, after the stop imposed by the pandemic, has seen the recovery interrupted due to the effects of inflation and energy costs, which have eroded the spending capacity of households. In the last two years, the association estimates, the purchasing power of Italians has in fact fallen by 14.7 billion euros, over 540 euros less per household. “A real collapse, which weighs on the fabric of neighborhood shops more than the online competition” reports the study on “Commerce today and tomorrow” on the future of distribution conducted by Confesercenti and Ipsos and presented today in Rome at the Sala di Vibia and Adriano in Rome, in the presence of the Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy Adolfo Urso.

Generations compared
For the occasion, Confesercenti and Ipsos conducted an intergenerational survey of a thousand consumers of all ages, from Baby Boomers to Generation Z, to assess their preference for the online and offline purchasing channel. From the answers of the interviewees, a more favorable picture emerges for traditional retail than is generally believed. Despite the progressive affirmation of eCommerce, physical stores continue to be the preferred purchasing channel for six of the nine product categories examined. The set of those who have purchased exclusively, mainly or sometimes online in the last year is the majority, in fact, only in the “travel and vacation” sector (where it reaches 72%), electronics and technological products (62%) and fashion ( 52%). The share of customers who, in the same period, bought only, mainly or sometimes in physical stores, on the other hand, is the majority for all the other six types: sportswear and articles (54%), cosmetics, perfumery and body care ( 58%), furniture and furnishing accessories (69%), take-away food and drinks (69%), household cleaning products (77%) and food (82%).
Not surprisingly, Baby Boomers make up the most offline shopping age group, while Generations Y and Z are more online-oriented. But while the preference for eCommerce is particularly marked for Generation Y, formed by those born between 1981 and 1996, the following Generation Z seems to return to positively evaluate the shopping experience in physical stores. The so-called Zoomers, in fact, although more “online” than Generation X and Baby Boomers, exceed the average propensity to purchase online only for food and household cleaning products, take-away food and drinks, cosmetics and electronics .

Here’s who closed
As for the drop in neighborhood shops, the decreases compared to 2019, in absolute numbers, are above all fashion shops (-8,553 units compared to 2019, with a drop of -6.3%), even if the highest percentage reductions are recorded by newspapers and stationery items (-13.5%, due to 3,963 fewer companies). Firms active in the sale of bread and cakes (-6.1%, due to 679 fewer businesses) and meat (-5.7%, -1,663 firms) also fell sharply. The loss for bookshops was more contained (-2%, or -112 businesses). Not all product sectors, however, are doing badly. This is the case of companies specializing in the sale of fruit and vegetables, which grew by 2% compared to the last year before the pandemic, for a total of 432 more companies. Shops specializing in fish, crustaceans and molluscs also did well (+107 businesses, for a positive change of +1.2%) and those in beverage distribution, which increased by 291 businesses over 2019, with growth of +4.5% compared to the period before the pandemic.

Few new openings
More than shop closures, Confesercenti points out, the problem is the lack of new openings. A trend evident from the data on the birth and death rate of businesses: in 2022 only 22,608 new businesses were born, 20.3% less than in 2021. A completely insufficient number to compensate for the over 43,000 businesses that have lowered the shutter forever, and which closes the year with a negative balance of over 20 thousand units, for an average of over two shops disappearing every hour. And in 2023 the situation does not improve: in the first three months of the year new openings are still 18% lower than those recorded in the same period of 2019.
And what will the future of the shops under the house look like? Considering the current trend, it is possible to estimate in the next seven years – between now and 2030 – a contraction of about 73,000 neighborhood businesses (-11% of the total), at a rate of 18 shops disappearing a day. «However, it is a question of a future that can be changed» claims Confesercenti, which proposes a double platform of interventions, for the recovery of consumption and for the support of shops and workshops. In order to restart household spending and combat the cost of living, it is first of all necessary to quickly implement the fiscal delegation, reducing the pressure of taxes on households. In particular, it would be appropriate to detax the contractual increases for the next two years: such a measure could generate 3 billion euros of additional consumption starting from the next contractual round. At the same time, to support neighborhood activities, it is necessary to introduce structural measures, with a training package for entrepreneurs, support for innovation, advantageous taxation for small distribution companies with a turnover of less than 400,000 euros a year, and the dry coupon for commercial leases, subjecting access to the granting of a fee agreed to the lessee, verified and guaranteed by trade associations. «We are convinced – explains the association led by Patrizia De Luise – that with these measures, it would be possible to reduce the erosion of the market shares of small surfaces, recovering 5.5 billion euros in sales, and saving almost 30,000 neighborhood from disappearance in the next seven years.