"Based on the analyzes carried out with panel and Ardl methodologies, an emissions scenario with temperature increases of +1.5°C in 2100 could curb the growth of per capita GDP by reducing its annual increase in a range between 0.04 and 0.13 percentage points, until determining at the end of the century a level between 2.8 and 9.5 per cent lower than what would prevail if it grew at its historical trend", reads the Bank of Italy study.
In addition to average temperatures, the study looked at the impact of persistently high temperatures. The analysis shows that the increase in the frequency of daily temperatures above 28°C had a negative impact on economic activity, particularly in the last 20 years of the twentieth century when this frequency increased significantly. The most penalized sector is agriculture, but negative effects have also been recorded in industry and services. "The increase in temperatures can have direct negative effects on national production through a wide range of channels - reads the study - such as the contraction of agricultural output, the reduction in worker productivity and the decline in investments in sectors more exposed to the consequences of global warming".