Europa League, because Roma lost on penalties according to science

You can think a lot about it cruelty of penalty kicks. Or you can try to study them. In short, you can try to understand if they exist factors that can influence their outcome.

Geir Jordeta professor at the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences, has dedicated five years of his life to proving that penalty kicks are not a simple “lottery”. Luck, it seems, often has nothing to do with it.

Jordet’s studies resurface every time an important tournament is decided with a series of penalty. This is the case, for example, of Rome-Sevillethe final of Europa League which was played in Budapest and which saw the Spanish team triumph after the penalty kicks. It finished 4-1 (1-1 aet), with the Sevilla players having scored all their penalties and the Roma players, on the other hand, missing two consecutive shots, the second and the third.

The fatal mistakes, for the Giallorossi, were those of Gianluca Mancini and of Roger Ibanez. The profiles of these two players respond, at first glance, to theJordet’s sketch. The Norwegian professor claims, in his research, that in high-level international competitions, when the pressure is high, defenders are more prone to miss a penaltyover the age of 23 and lined up from the first minute of the match.

Mancini and Ibanez are actually two defenders. And they played all 120 minutes of the Europa League final. The former is also 27 years old. The second has 24. Mourinho had at his disposal players who were certainly more “fresh” and at the same time considered “penalty takers”: Belotti, El Shaarawy and Wijnaldum. We don’t know if one or two of them were part of the list prepared by the coach at the end of extra time. Roma didn’t have the chance to take more penalties after the mistakes of Mancini and Ibanez.

Geir Jordet’s analysis is based on the observation of “every single penalty kick” taken in the World Cup, European Championships and Champions League from 1976 to 2021. On interviews with 25 players who have played in one of these competitions – and who have kicked a penalty – and on tests carried out on 15 high-ranking teams. We are talking about a very broad analysis which, although it does not closely concern the Europa League, can provide useful elements to reflect on every time you attend a top-level match decided by penalty kicks.

The conclusion, Jordet ironically states, is no surprise: the run-up to a penalty kick begins in the head of whoever is about to take it.

It is surprising, however, to learn that the status of a footballer – defined by the trophies won in his career – it has a negative impact on his performance from the penalty spot. The samples analysed, from Maradona to Messi, via Roberto Baggio and Cristiano Ronaldo, before receiving a prestigious individual award scored 89% of the penalties kicked. Once the trophy was placed on the showcase, the percentage dropped to 65%.

Geir Jordet also argues that the “ghosts of the past” affect the outcome of the penalty shoot-out. If a national team or club has lost a major trophy in the past through spot kicks, there is a higher chance that it will happen again.

If we want to apply this rule, supported by the data, to Rome-Seville, we can certainly say that the Roman team has an evident scar: the European Cup final lost against Liverpoolright on penalties, in 1984. Sevilla, on the other hand, can count on a super favorable tradition: four of the seven European cups won by the club so far have been awarded with spot kicks.

The rule of “ghosts”, says Jordet, it also applies to those who have not experienced the episode that torments a specific fan base. There are obviously exceptions: even Italy, which dramatically lost the final against Brazil in 1994 due to a penalty missed by Baggio, was able to chase away its ghosts in 2006, with Fabio Grosso’s spot kick which on that occasion gave the Azzurri won the World Cup.

Also the “preparation” of a penalty kick – argues Jordet – affects his transformation. Whoever rushes the shot, quickly positioning the ball on the penalty spot and quickly positioning himself to kick, has less chance of scoring than whoever takes more time before beating the penalty.