The three unknown factors on the Democratic Party primaries (regardless of the winner)

Nazarene, we have a problem. Already, the data of the elections of the circles suggest that the prospects of Democratic party are not too rosy. But let’s list the problems that appear on the horizon of the Democratic Party after the vote of the members.

First, the turnout. Al Nazareno had set the bar on a million voters in the gazebos. Now that bar is going down. 800,000 voters would be enough to say that the dem primaries were not a flop. Of course, compared to the numbers of the past there is no comparison, but the truth is that the Democratic Party no longer shoots like it used to and the low turnout could be the first consequence of this fact.

Second. The result of the primaries could overturn the result of the militants’ vote for the first time in the history of the Democratic Party. So far it has not happened because never before has the clash been real and with no holds barred. Furthermore, the central machine of the party that was once governed by someone, think of the Company at the time of the only other clash with an outcome that was not taken for granted, or at least not pre-arranged at the table, that is the one between Pier Luigi Bersani and Dario Franceschini. In the primary ones, the apparatus of the former PCI governed the situation with great mastery. That what would happen, therefore, if Elly Schlein beat Stefano Bonaccini at the polls? At the very least, the Democratic Party should review this complex mechanism for electing the secretary which, with such a result, would sanction the fact that the members’ vote is worth little if anything. And that the former vice president of the Emilia-Romagna Region can do it is confirmed by two factors: in terms of absolute votes, the gap between her and Bonaccini is far from insurmountable, moreover Schlein wins in the big cities and, as we know, is in big cities that the vote of opinion is expressed in gazebos.

Third. Yes because there is another problem. In fact, the way things have turned out whoever wins the gazebo will hardly be able to win with percentages over 60 percent. It is easier for the two contenders to settle with a winner (or winner) at 55 percent and a loser (or defeat) at 45. Such a result would restore the image of a party divided in half. And given the level of tension between the two sides, a leadership with such a narrow majority could hardly govern the party easily. Not to mention that such a result would open the door to a split in the not too distant future. To avoid such a prospect, Bonaccini let Schlein know that in the event of victory she would offer her the presidency of the parliamentary group of the chamber of deputies (on the Bersani-Franceschini model) but the leader of Occupy Pd has already rejected that offer.

All or almost all give the divorce between Matteo Renzi and Carlo Calenda as imminent. Of course, saying that good blood flows between the two is a lie, but any divorce will depend only on the leader of Action. Matteo Renzi, in fact, aims to keep the Third Pole united because before saying goodbye to this experiment he intends to pass through the testing ground of the European elections which, in his opinion, are very important not only for the European reflections but also for the Italian ones.