The risk of splits and the future of Forza Italia crucial matches for Meloni

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“And now?”: is the question that in the day of pain and mourning resounds in the semi-deserted corridors of the palaces. Silvio Berlusconi’s death took everyone by surprise. No one, not even the closest ones, had assumed that Friday could be his last hospitalization. After entering the hospital he had spoken personally with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, asking her about developments on the situation in Tunisia, with Matteo Salvini and with Antonio Tajani, who as foreign minister would shortly take off for the mission in Washington and who recounts that while he was in the flight, the former prime minister had sent him a message with a peace proposal for Ukraine. The same medical team had spoken of “scheduled” checks, explaining that the health conditions did not signal “neither critical issues nor alarms”.

It wasn’t like that. Once again the Knight has blown everyone away, he did what was not expected. And that question – “And now?” – a quiet game is destined to become central and noisy in the coming weeks and above all in the coming months because the answer will mark the present but above all the future of Italian politics.

Starting with the fate of Forza Italia. Gianfranco Micciché, for some time en route with the Sicilian and non-Sicilian blue summit, gave it up for doom with a lapidary “dies with Silvio”. Giuliano Urbani also said the same, who was one of the founders of the blue party but who trusts, however, that it is now Giorgia Meloni who will take over the “liberal revolution” coveted by Berlusconi.

What is certain is that the fate of Forza Italia inevitably reflects on the current majority, on the government and also and above all on the alliances in Europe. To date Forza Italia is in fact the only Italian political movement to be part of the EPP and in exactly one year we will vote for the renewal of the Strasbourg Parliament.

It is no mystery that the prime minister is aiming to review the current balance through a more organic relationship between the Conservatives group, where her Brothers of Italy are starting to be the most consistent patrol, and, precisely, the Popolari today led by Manfred Weber, who have the almost total certainty of remaining with any majority also in the next legislature at the helm of the Brussels government: stability pact, Pnrr, green transition are issues that remain central. The presence of an Italian representation in the EPP is therefore also strategic for Meloni. Berlusconi knew it well, he had always known it and in fact claimed it. It is no coincidence that on the occasion of the last political elections in September last year he wanted to redesign the Forza Italia symbol by adding an explicit “reference” to the European People’s Party “which we are proud to represent in Italy”.