The possible effects of El Niño on Italy, an unprecedented heat wave

Seven years after the last event, it’s back to being talked about “El Niño” an atmospheric phenomenon that occurs cyclically and which involves the water heating of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. What is worrying now is above all the combination of the effects ofheat wave caused by “El Niño” with the additional effects of global warming.

For this reason the Secretary General of theWorld Meteorological OrganizationPetteri Taalas, urged the governments of the countries most at risk to take action to try to stem the health effects of the extreme heat expected. “The arrival of El Nino will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and trigger more extreme heat in many parts of the world and oceans,” Taalas said. “We hope that governments prepare to limit the impacts on health, ecosystems and economies. Early warning and preventative action are essential to saving lives during extreme weather events.”

Will there be effects of “El Niño” on Italy?

Unlike previous waves however the effects of “El Niño” they are likely to affect more areas than are usually affected. Notoriously the main effects are in fact Drought in Central America and the northern part of South America, Australia and South Asia and consequently a increase in rainfall in some areas of the United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. However the first effects of this heat wave they are also manifesting themselves in different areas: Texas And Mexico are witnessing one of the strongest heatwaves on record, and unusually high temperatures have also been recorded in China And Iran.

In Italy, and in general on almost all of Europe, the effects should be decidedly mitigated, if not almost completely absent, thanks to the distance from the Pacific. Although on the rise, the temperatures they should not touch record levels thanks to the fresh Atlantic currents. The only possible consequence could be an increase in rainfall between autumn and winter, but even here we remain within the scope of hypotheses.

The effects of “El Niño” on the seas

The effects of El Niño also extend to marine ecosystems. The thermal anomalies caused by this phenomenon can affect the distribution of marine species and can lead to swings in the productivity of ocean ecosystems. The frequency of this climatic phenomenon varies, but usually occurs every 2-7 years and lasts for 9-12 months. Scientists constantly monitor changes in ocean temperatures and other parameters to identify the onset of a new El Niño episode and better understand its dynamics. Many countries vulnerable to the effects of similar climatic events have developed over time adaptation and response plans to deal with the consequences of the phenomenon. These plans often include actions such as managing water resources, enhancing flood defense infrastructure, promoting climate-resilient agriculture, and implementing early warning systems to warn communities of impending extreme weather events.

Given the interconnectedness of global climate systems, it is important to understand and closely monitor the phenomenon. International bodies such as the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provide early warnings and recommendations to address its effects. These include the collection of meteorological and oceanographic data, the development of advanced climate models and international collaboration to share information and adopt mitigation measures.