The IMF: global growth slightly up, services and tourism reward Italy

FROM THE WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT. The short-term progress of the global economy is undeniable, the world is gradually recovering from the pandemic and absorbing the shocks of the conflict in Ukraine; however, “there are still many challenges on the horizon and it is premature to celebrate”. Thus the International Monetary Fund reads in the update of the World Economic Outlook presented this morning in Washington the global prospects in which the growth figure is revised slightly up compared to April (3% against 2.8%). Furthermore, inflation is destined to fall to 6.8% (again 0.2% better than the spring estimates). But the tightening of the central banks – among other things, the decision of the US Federal Reserve on a new hike of 0.25% is expected tomorrow – has slowed down growth.

Compared to 2022, there is a slowdown as global GDP was at +3.5% at the time, while both this year and in 2024 it will not exceed 3%. Emerging economies are running year on year (from 3.1 to 4.1%) but the advanced ones seem to have lost their driving force for the third consecutive quarter.

Growth in these contexts suffers a sudden setback, from +2.7% to 1.5%, and will remain timid again next year, at around 1.4%.

The euro area is bad, falling from the positive 3.5 in 2022 to 0.9% in 2023, signs of recovery instead up to plus 1.5% next year. In this weak panorama, the revitalization of tourism and the recovery of services reward Italy (up by 0.4% compared to the April forecasts and therefore standing at +1.1% this year and at 0.9% in 2024), which does better than the euro area average (0.9%) and is only lower than Spain which records +2.5%, also driven by the recovery of services and tourism.

The weakness in manufacturing production and the economic contraction in the first quarter deal a hard blow to Germany estimated in negative growth (-0.3%). Finally, the United States where the GDP falls from 2.1% to a growth of 1.8% before slipping to 1% in 2024. Here too, however, compared to the April estimates, there is an improvement generated by the resilience of consumption, by a strong labor market that has pushed up incomes and fueled sales. According to IMF analysts, however, this growth in consumption is temporary as Americans have now exhausted the savings accumulated during the pandemic and the FED’s tightening on monetary policy will be felt on GDP.