The filing of Fontana and Gallera in the Covid investigation disavows the Crisanti method

The famous investigation into the management of the first wave of Covid in the province of Bergamo, the one on the “missing red zone” in Val Seriana, to be clear, ends in nothing. The court of ministers of Brescia has archived the positions of the thirteen suspectsincluding the president of the Lombardy Region Attilio Fontana and the former Lombard Councilor for Welfare, Guido Gallera, accused of “aggravated culpable epidemic, multiple manslaughter”, After the dismissal of the then Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and the former Minister of Health Roberto Speranza, the positions of the other eleven were also dismissed for not having committed the facts attributed to them: Claudio D’Amario, Agostino Miozzo, Silvio Brusaferro, Andrea Urbani, Franco Locatelli, Giuseppe Ippolito, Luigi Cajazzo, Angelo Borrelli, Giuseppe Ruocco, Francesco Paolo Maraglino and Mauro Dionysus. The court “kept alive”, sending the documents to the prosecutor’s office, only an accusation of refusal of official documents for not having applied the 2006 flu plan against Brusaferro, Borrelli, D’Amario, as technicians, the former Lombard councilor Gallera and the former general director Cajazzo.

But there’s more. Besides saying that the establishment of the red zone was not the responsibility of the region Lombardy, the sentence dismantles the pandemic justicialism – ridden by Pd and M5s – and the thesis that the lack of red zone had caused an increase in deaths. An accusation corroborated by “super consultancy” by the microbiologist Andrea Crisanti, who went from being Luca Zaia’s reference scientist to a great accuser of the regions governed by the center-right and finally to a senator of the Democratic Party. The prosecutors based the accusations of epidemic and manslaughter on the technical advice entrusted to the pool of scientists led by Crisanti. According to the study “the suspects would have caused the spread of the epidemic in Val Seriana through an estimated increase of no less than the contagion of 4,148 people, equal to the number of fewer deaths that would have occurred in the province of Bergamo, compared to the excess of mortality recorded in that period, if the red zone had been extended starting from 27 February 2020. With the aggravating circumstance of having caused the death of more people “. To be precise 57 more deaths. But for the Brescian judges, “there is no evidence at all that the 57 people, who would have died due to the failure to extend the red zone, are among the 4,148 excess deaths that would not have occurred if the red zone had been activated”. The court then beats the microbiologist. “Prof. Crisanti – the magistrates write – carried out a theoretical study, but was unable to answer about the causal link between the failure to activate the red zone and the death of specific people”. And finally the definitive rejection of the Crisanti method: “The dispute of manslaughter (…) is therefore based on a mere theoretical hypothesis devoid of the slightest confirmation“.

The Court of Brescia then explains that Fontana and Gallera they had sent the request to establish the red zone “promptly” to the government. And on the accusation against the Lombardy region of not having applied the 2006 pandemic plan, the charge falls because, whoever wrote it “expressed himself in drastic terms about the uselessness of that plan to deal with the pandemic”. Finally, the judges add that “it would be unrealistic to assume” that the epidemic “was causedeven if only at national or regional level, from alleged omissions. The empirical but irrefutable demonstration of this assumption is given by the fact that all countries have been affected by the pandemic, both those that have adopted more restrictive measures such as Italy, and those that have adopted less restrictive measures”.