Italian inflation slows down. In February 2023, Istat estimates that the national consumer price index for the entire community, gross of tobacco, will rise by 0.2% on a monthly basis but by only 9.1% on an annual basis . The preliminary estimate was +9.2% (and we were coming from an estimate of +10.0% in the previous month). In February, according to Istat, the phase of slowdown in inflation therefore consolidates.
What is the reason for the decline
Good news for families and consumers. But what is the reason for the slowdown in the price race? The decline is the result of the easing of tensions on the prices of Energy Goods, both of the regulated and unregulated component. They keep for the pushes to rise in prices in the sector of processed and unprocessed food goods, tobacco and services. As a consequence, the growth on an annual basis of the core component (+6.3%) and that of the so-called is accentuated “shopping cart”, which goes back to +12.7%after the slowdown observed in January.
The increases in detail
The inflation acquired for 2023 equals +5.4% for the general index and +3.7% for the core component. The slowdown in inflation in February is due primarily, explains Istat, to the accentuation of the decline on a trend basis in the prices of Regulated energy goods (from -12.0% to -16.4%) and the deceleration of unregulated energy prices (from +59.3% to +40.8%), the effects of which were only partially offset by the acceleration in food prices, both processed (from +14.9% to +15.5%) and non-processed (from +8.0% to +8.7%), of those of Tobacco (from a zero trend variation to +1.8%), of the prices of recreational, cultural and for personal care (from +5.5% to +6.1%) and transport-related services (from +5.9% to +6.4%). Core inflation, net of energy and fresh food, accelerated from +6.0% to +6.3%, that net of energy goods alone from +6.2% to +6.4%.
The year-on-year growth of the prices of goods (from +14.1% to +12.4%), while on the contrary the price relating to services is accentuated (from +4.2% to +4.4%), bringing the inflation differential between the services and goods sectors to -8.0 percentage points, from -9.9 in January. The prices of food, home and personal care goods (the so-called shopping cart) recorded an acceleration in trend terms (from +12.0% to +12.7%), while those of high-frequency products purchases remain almost stable (from +8.9% to +9.0%). On a trend basis the division that recorded the greatest increase was that of Housing, water, electricity and fuels with a price increase of 24.5%. On a quarterly basis, there was a drop of 4.2%. The cyclical increase in the general index is mainly due to the prices of unprocessed food (+2.4%), tobacco (+1.9%), processed food (+0.9%), services relating to transport (+0.8%), durable goods (+0.7%), non-durable goods (+0.6%), recreational, cultural and personal care services (+0.5%) and services relating to housing (+0.4%).
The price increases
The Codacons are concerned. Inflation at 9.1% is equivalent to a higher outlay of +2,662 euros per year for the 'typical' family, expenditure which rises to +3,447 euros for a household with two children - analyzes Codacons - Despite the deceleration in the general rate recorded by Istat in the last two months, the prices of the products most purchased by citizens remain at very high levels, with the shopping cart even rising to +12.7% from +12% in the previous month, while high-frequency products purchases went from +8.9% to +9.0%. Foodstuffs even rose by +13.2% on an annual basis and by +1.5% compared to the previous month.