prices up for the shopping cart (+12.7%) – Corriere.it

The phase of inflation reduction continues and, according to the preliminary estimates of Istat, in March it dropped to +7.7% from +9.1% in the previous month, driven by the dynamics of energy prices. This is the lowest level since May 2022, when it was 6.8%. The monthly rate of decrease in consumer prices stands at 0.3%, while upward tensions continue in the prices of unprocessed food goods, and core inflation, net of energy and fresh food, still registers a moderate acceleration (from +6.3% to +6.4%).

The weight on the shopping cart

The consequences are particularly evident in the shopping cart. According to the data collected by Istat, the growth in the prices of food, home and personal care products remains stable on a trend basis at 12.7%. five percentage points higher than the inflation rate (7.7%). In particular, Coldiretti shows a trend reversal and a 9.4% increase in the prices of fresh vegetables under the pressure of the mix of climate change and production costs. In particular, there was an acceleration of unprocessed food (+9.3%) and a slight slowdown in finished products (+15.3%) on which transformation costs continue to weigh and packaging, from glass to labels and caps. A difficulty that extends to the countryside: first the pandemic and then the conflict in Ukraine showed an entirely globalized system. The president of Coldiretti, Ettore Prandini, therefore highlights the need for immediate remedies and a relaunch of European and national instruments that ensure food sovereignty, reduce dependence on foreign countries and guarantee a fair price of food for producers and consumers and therefore to double from 5 to 10 billion the resources allocated to agri-food in the Pnrr, shifting funds from other sectors to avoid losing European funding.

Consumer alert

Consumers’ associations are the problems that – despite the continuous decline in inflationary data – remain present for households and businesses. For a couple with two children, for example – says Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumer Union –the sting equal to 2,306 euros on an annual basis, of which 1,015 just for eating and drinking, 1,062 euros for the shopping cart only. But that’s not enough: it is urgent that prices go down and return to being normal and sustainable for families. The good results achieved in recent months, comments the Confcommercio Research Office, must not lead us to overlook the pitfalls that lurk in the process of downsizing. The previous tensions accumulated in the balance sheets of companies along the chain that connects imports, producer and wholesale prices, up to the final distribution sector, are still present. The containment of inflationary dynamics represents a solid basis for a more dynamic second part of the year in terms of production activity. But this does not mean that losses in purchasing power, income and liquid wealth do not already have a negative impact on household consumption and growth.

Inflation in Europe

Also in the euro area, inflation should reach 6.9% in March, also in this case, a sharp drop compared to the 8.5% recorded in February, as evidenced by Eurostat data. As regards the main components, the highest rate expected for food products, alcohol and tobacco (15.4%, from 15% in February), followed by non-energy industrial goods, services and energy (-0.9%, compared to 13.7% in February). The estimate for Italy of a drop in harmonized inflation to 8.2%, from 9.8% in February.