Pagnoncelli’s poll: the Schlein effect stops, the Democratic Party drops by one point (19.4%). Centre-right stable: 46.7- Corriere.it

From a political point of view, the month of June was characterized by many and complex elements. Three seem to be the central themes: economy (to which Pnrr, ESM and rate hikes are connected), war in Ukraine, migrants. On the first issue, tensions with Europe and the ECB were evident. The theme of the Mes has in turn highlighted some differences of vision and a growing irritation of Europe, with respect to which President Meloni had harsh words in her speech to Parliament. On the other hand, there seems to be a commonly critical view on rate hikes on the work of Christine Lagardeaccused of leading us into a recession. On the war in Ukraine the positions of the majority are more uniform today, especially after the march on Moscow Prigozhin, while in the opposition the differences are more marked. Finally, the classic divisions reappear on the issue of migrants. To add: the choice of the commissioner for Emilia-Romagna, with difficulty landed in the identification of General Figliuolo and the Santanch case, which seems to produce difficulties in the majority. And lastly, the issue of road safety. Definitely, a lot of irons in the fire. How did the Italians react?

The evaluation of the executive registers a very small increase with the approval rating passing from 51 to 52, while the approval of the prime minister remains very stable at 53 points. In short, the fibrillations of the month did not produce repercussions on the government.

Voting intentions give us a panorama with few but interesting changes. In the centre-right the changes are scarcely significant, in the order of a few decimals, except for the League, which increases by almost one point. The growth seems to be linked to the issue of safety and in particular road safety (helmets and insurance for bicycles and scooters, zero tolerance for driving alcohol and drugs). In the opposition, the differences compared to last month are more substantial. The Pd, which had recorded a very small drop in May, today shows a more marked drop, by one point, settling at 19.4%. It seems that the positive effect caused by the election of the new young secretary is diminishing, with respect to which discontent appears to be growing within the party, also connected to the less than exciting electoral performances, most recently the Regionals of Molise. In reverse the M5S grows by more than one point, settling at 16.2%, interrupting the decreasing trend of the last six months. And this despite the fact that the Movement’s performance in local elections has been very disappointing. But the M5S has a very national vote and today it seems to gain from the differentiations with respect to the Democratic Party. In the former third pole, then, the share figure partially contracted (3.1%, -0.4%) while Italy alive grew by more than one point, today above share (4.1%, +1.1%). There was a slight decrease but still a high percentage of uncertain and abstentionists (39%).

Finally, the ranking of the leaders, which signals small variations (in particular Salvini and Renzi grow by 2 points), with two exceptions. The first is the new entry by Antonio Tajani, the coordinator of Forza Italia, which we tested after the disappearance of Silvio Berlusconi. A flattering result for him, probably also produced (but certainly not only) by the emotion caused by mourning: today Tajani is in first place, with an appreciation index of 34. The other obvious change concerns Elly Schlein who loses five points in a month.

In short, June, despite all the fibrillation, confirms the stability of the centre-right and signals a rebalancing in the opposition. We will see in July if the political issues that await us and in particular the Santanch case for the centre-right and the militant summer for Schlein and the Pd will produce more significant changes.

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