Home, expensive mortgages and inflation slow down sales: -12%

Home sales, the downward trend continues

Inflation and expensive mortgages are holding back the housing market. Prices still go up, but not everywhere and even where they go up they do so only in nominal terms. According to the latest Nomisma real estate market observatory, the propulsive phase that began after Covid has ended and we are now in a period of fogging. The term is the one used by Luca Dondi, CEO of the Bolognese research institute, but looking at the forecast numbers for the 2023 final, we say that at least in the case of mortgages we could speak of a real collapse. Indeed, for this year Nomisma estimates disbursements of 40.1 billion euros, 13 less than in 2022, equal to a decrease of 24.2% while a decrease of 12.7% is expected for sales. A percentage, the latter, rather high but at the end of March the estimate was -15%. The interviews with real estate agencies conducted for the Observatory’s editorial staff probably showed a slight improvement in expectations. Nomisma has also formulated forecasts for 2024 and 2025, which will in turn be characterized by a minus sign: for 2024, the decline in disbursements is expected to be 8% and that of transactions to 7.9%; in 2025 mortgages down by 1.1% and purchases and sales by 1.4%.

Jul 14, 2023

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