GDP, without children, will drop by 500 billion by 2070: what is the demographic winter – Corriere.it

We are a large country that is getting smaller and smaller. In 2070, GDP will drop by 500 billion from the current 1,800, reducing by a third». The president of Istat, Gian Carlo Blangiardo, from the stage of the Festival Città Impresa in Bergamo warns against the risks of the so-called “demographic winter”. A phenomenon that will lead our country to progressively lose children, young people, future workers and, therefore, points of GDP.

During the debate the expert focused on dangers of empty cradles. “This year, most likely, we will decrease” the number of those born in Italy in 2021. An enormous damage in perspective that opens up the scenario of a country without children and with a predominantly elderly population. “Currently – explains Blangiardo – we have 800,000 people aged 90 or over, in 2050 we will have 1.7 million and in 2070 it will be 2.2 million. Of these, 145,000 will be over 100, today there are 20,000″. A similar demographic trend, explained the president of Istat, will lead to Italy to go “from 59 million inhabitants to 48 in 2070”.

The role of women

The aging of the country will have a heavy impact on the economy also according to the director general of Confindustria, Francesca Mariotti, who emphasized the possible solution to the problem: the need to facilitate women’s entry into the world of work by supporting them in their role as mothers. «Companies are looking for female employment – ​​she says – because it’s good for the GDP. Several studies tell us that girls have even better study performance than their male colleagues». Female workers are therefore a resource for the country system. An aspect on which Blangiardo also insists: «Women are at the center of therapy to reduce the demographic decline. We can work on conciliation, we must have women with a career not conditioned by being a mother».

Scenarios: declining fertility rate and ever smaller families

This is the only way to reduce the phenomenon of empty cradles and increase the figure of 1.2 children per woman. «Families grow in number but are increasingly restricted, the tree loses its branches. When only children have to look after their elderly parents, they are alone, therefore the family network is skipped», adds Blangiardo. So that for the president of Istat, having certified companies on reconciliation issues is an important step to fight the demographic winter. Which promises to be long: in 2070 with a hypothetical rate of 1.9 children per woman, the maximum will be 500,000 born in one year. Less than in 2008.

Conciliation, kindergartens and flexibility

The question is to give support to women in everyday life and one of the tools mentioned in the comparison is the nursery school often also offered by companies. «Should the company make up for a public policy? In part yes. He is doing it», Mariotti insists, reiterating the urgency of state support in this matter. “There is a major issue of public policies, which also involves the 4.6 billion of the Pnrr”. Resources to invest immediately «for have a coverage of places in nursery schools of 30%, a goal for 2010», he concludes. On the issue of reconciliation, work flexibility tools, such as smart working, were also strategic for the speakers. An opportunity for a new management of home-office times.