Friuli, the collapse of Fdi alarm bell for Meloni, no Schlein effect for the Democratic Party
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“A victory that rewards the administrative model and the good governance of the centre-right and which spurs us to do better and better”. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni thus comments on the expected victory of the outgoing governor of Friuli Venezia Giulia, confirmed at the helm of the region with a special statute with over 60% of the votes, doubling his main competitor from the centre-left Massimo Moretuzzo. Understandably glossing over the true data of these Friulian elections: the collapse of the Brothers of Italy from the 31% collected in the elections of last September 25 to around 17%. A collapse that evidently went to the full advantage of the governor’s personal list, which also collected about 17%, while the League is not only not damaged by the competing list of the governor, who is also the main competitor within the League for the leader Matteo Salvini, but leaps to first party exceeding 18% from the 10% collected in politics. Forza Italia, on the other hand, remained stable at just under 7%.
Salvini’s sigh of relief and the alarm bell at Palazzo Chigi
In short, a sigh of relief in Via Bellerio, where it was feared that the governor’s list would dry up. But Fedriga confirms himself as a much appreciated regional president, also voted for by a part of those who had not voted for the center-right in the general elections as already happened to the Northern League governor of Veneto Luca Zaia, and therefore even more internal competitor. It is too early to say whether the collapse of the Brothers of Italy is a reflection of the government’s difficulties on the issues of immigration and the Pnrr and if this regional vote marks the end of the honeymoon of the Italians with the prime minister, but certain data they send an alarm bell to Palazzo Chigi.
Is the voters’ honeymoon with Prime Minister Meloni already over?
Perhaps it is time to re-launch the reform project, as the former president of the Senate Marcello Pera, re-elected on the Brothers of Italy list, warns Corriere della Sera: «The Meloni agenda has not yet come out. It’s time to relaunch by putting in place the constitutional reform of the form of government, with the direct election of the Prime Minister or the President of the Republic, and the other reforms that were planned starting with those of justice “, is the analysis by Pera, who also takes issue with the historical revisionism advocated by the current president of the Senate Ignazio La Russa. «To linger over historical revisions or to raise anachronistic barricades is useless and harmful. Useless because it doesn’t even bring votes, harmful because it only exasperates spirits and thus strengthens the opponents».
The Democratic Party holds but there is no Schlein effect. Collapse of the M5s, and the Third pole arrives last
It must be said that in the case of the regional ones in Friuli Venezia Giulia the opponents have not strengthened at all, on the contrary. The Pd declines a little compared to the general elections (from about 18% to about 17%), and therefore the hoped-for Elly Schlein effect does not exist. It is clear that the new secretary distances herself, given that the civic candidate supported by the Democratic Party and the M5s was chosen when she was not yet a member of the party, but it is true that there is a bit of disappointment in Largo del Nazareno: it was hoped in exceeding the 20% psychological threshold reached in national surveys. On the other hand, the main ally, the M5s, almost disappeared, going from 7.2% of the policies to less than 3%. While the Third Pole, which in the region has chosen the solitary race as candidate for Alessandro Maran, also falls below 3% from 8.7% of the policies. Maran is even surpassed by the no vax candidate Giorgia Tripoli. A debacle.
The strong abstention is asymmetrical: it mainly damages the centre-left
Also not favoring the centre-left is the fact of the strong abstention – the turnout stopped below 50%, at 45.26% – which once again, as happened in Lombardy and Lazio, is asymmetrical: it is above all the centre-left voters, who, given the lost game, prefer to stay at home. It is clear that, if the three legs of the former wide field are unable to agree, in the presence of majority coalition systems such as the one for the Municipalities and Regions in addition to the Rosatellum national team, the victory of the centre-right is and will be taken for granted . In addition, the effect is amplified by the abstention that the divisions of the field produce in the absence of real competition.
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