Forza Italia and the hypothesis of a single party with Fratelli d’Italia, by Meloni-Corriere.it

ROME – They had hoped to have time, more time, to face what everyone knew would happen sooner or later, but for which they were never ready. And I’m not either now that the Knight has really left them, after the hope of a “rebirth” that only Saturday should have seen a new stage, a meeting with all the staff in Arcore. There was no time, way, possibility. After the great fear of the first days of April, the very slow recovery, the return home, everyone in FI knew that the situation remained in the balance. But no one yet had the strength to face the problem head-on. The after. A total, definitive, sudden absence in some way.

Antonio Tajani he was visiting America, they woke him up in the middle of the night. He was thrilled for hours. Maurice Gasparri he can’t get over it: «Thursday we were on the phone organizing Azzurro donna…”. Paolo Barelli he can hardly think of the next 48 hours: “Our people want to see him, we must try to organize a funeral home”. All caught off guard. So nothing has really been decided yet for the immediate or long term.

On the other hand, the party has never had a normal line of command. The charges could appear or disappear in the blink of an eye, at the simple will of Berlusconi. And so it was this time too, with the reversal that led to the downgrading of Licia Ronzullithe strengthening of Tajani’s government line and the growth of the component close to Martha Fascina. But already in the last two weeks a cold wind had begun to blow: hypotheses of takeovers by Fascina herself with her loyalists, of a balance of power between her and Tajani, of a possible return to the attack by Ronzulli, of imminent changes that Berlusconi himself had announced but not yet signed. All denied but all plausible. And now?

Now there are many scenarios. The most tragic one, on which some of the allies bet and at the same time fear, is the rapid and immediate end of the party itself. An escape in all directions, who in the center, who towards the League, who from FdI. Process that could be inevitable if — crucial fact — Berlusconi’s family decides to pull the plug and turn off the funding taps for the party, which lives on guarantees, almost 100 million. For now the treasurer Alfredo Messina, who holds the symbol, excludes it: «I’m sure the party will stay. He has to survive, we owe it to him. He has created something unique, we must not squander this experience ». A presidential committee is convened today to vote on the budget: there should be no further surprises, but nothing is excluded.

Clear that in the next few days a line will have to be chosen. Gasparri almost shouts: «Without Berlusconi, a lot will change, but we also thought so when Almirante died: 5 years later we were in government. What matters is that no one feels like Napoleon or runs away. There is political space for an EPP party like ours. Stay away from little sharks and renzetti…». Yes, but how to survive? Risk is an internal struggle, e Claudio Scajola advises: «Tajani now has the responsibility of leading FI. You have the character and poise to lead FI towards a new political path ».

But the match is really complex, because it involves the redefinition of the entire centre-right. Whether FI resists in the current set-up, perhaps with a command deck extended to all souls, or whether it collapses, the scheme of a coalition with a large right-wing party, an identity-based one like the League and a moderate one like FI, both on the 8% but essential, it will hardly hold up. The appointment that everyone had tacitly given themselves was the European Championships of 2024, when the forces would be weighed. The hypothesis of a sort of merger of FI with FdI in a conservative party exists, Giuliano Urbani is certain of it: “FI will not survive Berlusconi, perhaps it will merge into FdI”. Meloni would have had every interest in proceeding gradually, keeping alive the centrist area that can act as a bridge between the Ppe and the Conservatives for a European pact that would be very important for the premier.

But Berlusconi’s death accelerates everything, doesn’t make a choice any longer postponeable, both on the part of the Azzurri (primarily Marina Berlusconi and the historical advisers), and above all on the part of Meloni herself. As her loyalists say, there is still a lot of political space for her to conquer, but to do so a PDL-style operation would be needed, with a consequent redefinition in the watchwords and in the ruling class of FdI. Is the time ripe?


Conversely, if Meloni remained out of the game, FI without his father-master could open up spaces for forces much less willing to allow him smooth sailing, such as the Renzians, the scattered centrists, the former Azzurri. Who perhaps would be ready to “lend a hand”, but asking in exchange for new government structures. For now there are only questions. And a big void. And this is the only thing that everyone agrees on.

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