Empty cart inflation: sales at -3.7% in volume since the beginning of the year

In May there was a drop in sales volumes of 4.7% compared to May 2022, and -3.7% in the first four months of 2023. Better sales in value (+3%), but only due to inflation. To trace the scenario an analysis of Confesercenti which estimates that, despite a positive mini-rebound compared to April – determined by the growth of the non-food sector – the overall picture of trade is not changing, conditioned by thehigh inflation which also made itself felt in May and which – latest data Istat – in June it stood at +6.4% (down from +7.6% in May, but still strong).

Driven by the high cost of living, sales are following different trends depending on the purchasing channels. Traditional commerce continues to suffer, recording a further 0.6% drop on May 2022, against a 6.5% increase in Gdo. In large-scale distribution, household preferences fall towards the most convenient formats: discounters recorded a trend variation of +11%, the highest increase since September 2022. E-commerce, which exploded during the restrictions, while remaining on positive ground, instead shows a slowdown (+1.5% in May compared to +4.3% in the quarter).

“Inflation continues to remain at high levels, empty wallets and shopping bags: Italians spend more to buy less”, he comments Confesercenti. “A particularly difficult context for small sales areas, which in order to contain prices are forced to reduce their margins, already under pressure from the general increase in costs. The increase in interest rates also weighs: the rush of mortgages not only slows down business investments, but also displaces household budgets”.