Durum wheat, Italy will produce 12% more this year
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In Italy, the national production of durum wheat, an essential ingredient for pasta, will grow by 12% this year. In fact, for the 2023-2024 campaign, Crea expects harvests of over 4 million tons, thanks above all to higher productivity of the yields. These are the estimates that will be announced today in Foggia during DurumDays 2023, the event that every year brings together all the players in the supply chain to take stock of the campaign’s forecasts. The meeting will be attended by Assosementi, Cia-Agricoltori italiani, Confagricoltura, Copagri, Alleanza Cooperative agroalimentari, Compag, Italmopa, Unione Italiana Food and Crea itself.
«For Italy this is a good recovery – explains Carlo Bevilacqua, head of Market intelligence at Areté, which is the technical partner of the Durum Days – but we cannot forget that this year in our country the areas sown have decreased by about 1%. This means that the good Italian performance will be entirely linked to the trend in yields: which are promising at the moment, but the great unknown factor of bad weather weighs on the final calculation». In the Centre-North, durum wheat cultivation is currently in good condition, but the meteorological trend in the coming weeks and the rains of these days could jeopardize the final production.
world production
Compared to the world production scenario, the data processed by Areté forecast a substantial production recovery during 2023 both in Europe, where overall growth of 5% is expected, and in North America, with a 5% increase in the harvest in Canada and by 3% in the United States. However, the growth of American granaries will not be enough to bring the 2023-24 world budget back into balance, which in fact will mark a deficit, albeit slight, of 1%. To this must be added the problem of inventories: those with which we are facing the 2023-24 campaign are in fact at historic lows and this, experts say, could result in tension on the price front.
Price expectations
The prices, indeed. According to the alarms recently launched by Italian farmers, the prices of durum wheat have dropped by 30% in the last year. Even internationally, according to the Areté data, the 2022-23 campaign was marked by a generalized reduction in average prices: 19% in Canada and 25% in the United States. But what awaits us from here on out? «On the horizon there are elements of risk that could put durum wheat prices back in tension – explains Bevilacqua – first of all the issue of yields, which due to bad weather could not live up to forecasts and turn out to be lower. Secondly, the need to increase inventories, which are at their lowest. Thirdly, we must take into account the fact that today the prices of other cereals are very squeezed on those of durum wheat: if the prices of one of these were to push upwards, it would be easier to trigger a domino effect on the price of wheat hard”. If, for example, the agreement on the export of Ukrainian soft wheat which expires tomorrow were not to be extended, the prices of this cereal would rise and could also push up those of durum wheat.
The role of Canada
Like last year, then, the future of wheat prices, and in cascade that of pasta, will once again depend on the performance of the Canadian market. «The harvest in North America has moved further on the calendar – recalls Bevilacqua – at the moment the Canadian farmers are sowing, and with such low prices some of them could be induced to reduce sowing. Furthermore, last year Canada exported a lot, well beyond its campaign objectives, and this time it could decide to reduce the pace».
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