Confindustria sees pink on the GDP: “Favorable winds”. But warns on the Pnrr: “It is the crucial moment”

TURIN. «Favourable winds on the course of the Italian economy in the first part of 2023», with the GDP that in the first quarter saw a restart above expectations (+0.5%) bringing the change acquired for 2023 to +0.8% . This is what the Confindustria Study Center underlines, adding that the drop in the price of gas “feeds confidence in Italy, as well as favoring the reduction of inflation, which however will be slow and will continue to slow down consumption”. As for industry, the dynamics have been positive “only thanks to the drag” since the end of 2022, while services and tourism are booming. Consumption is therefore penalized by the previous jump in prices: in the fourth quarter of 2022 their surge eroded household income (-3.7% real), underlines the CSC, and this resulted in a drop in consumption (-1.6% %), especially food (-5.3%). Meanwhile, Italian exports continue to grow, which remains expanding at the beginning of 2023 (+0.5% in February; +0.6% acquired in the first quarter). While rates remain high and rising. The cost of credit for Italian companies, continues the Confindustria Study Center, rose to 3.55% in February (from 1.18% at the end of 2021) and in March the share of industrial companies that obtains credit only at more onerous conditions is at 44.3% (from 7.3%). Internationally, the Eurozone is slowing down: in the first quarter the GDP trend was “disappointing” (+0.1% from +0.2%). The USA are less brilliant: the Fed has revised its GDP forecasts downwards in 2023 (from +0.5% to +0.4%) and in 2024 (from +1.6% to +1.2%); the data then showed a slowdown higher than expected in the first quarter (+0.3%, from +0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022). While China holds back and India accelerates.

However, a warning comes from Viale dell’Astronomia. The implementation of the Pnrr is “crucial, to support investments, in particular those in digital technologies and energy efficiency, and to finally raise the growth potential of the Italian economy in the coming years”. The Study Center points out that fixed investments in Italy are held back above all by the lack of resources of companies and by high credit rates. “There are no resources in the financial statements of Italian companies that can be easily used to finance new fixed investments. However, the expected growth for investments in non-residential buildings and in machinery and equipment linked to the expenditure of resources envisaged by the Pnrr and other European funds”. The EU Commissioner for the Economy spoke on the subject in the morning: “The Italian authorities and our services are working in a very positive way”.