Confcommercio, the Misery index stable in February
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In February, the social hardship index remained stable. According to the surveys by Confcommercio, the Misery Index is confirmed at 17.9 due to the uncertainties about the possibility of a marked downsizing, in the short term, of the area of social hardship, although widespread unemployment drops to 8.9% while the prices of goods and services with a high frequency of purchase reaches 9%. Thus the stabilization of the indicator, at a high value, reflects the substantial stability of both the rate of change in the prices of goods and services with a high frequency of purchase, and of widespread unemployment. In February 2023, the prices of frequently purchased goods and services showed a trend variation of 9.0%, slightly up on the 8.9% of the previous month. The first estimates for March signal a marked slowdown in the growth rate of prices for this type of goods and services (+7.7% on an annual basis). The beginning of a less critical phase in terms of inflation is an important prerequisite for an improvement in economic activity in the second half of 2023, with possible positive effects on the labor market and on the area of social hardship. However, the pitfalls that lurk along the way should not be overlooked, as the previous tensions accumulated in the balance sheets of companies along the chain that connects imports, producer and wholesale prices, up to the final distribution sector, are still present.
As regards the trend of the labor market in February, contained variations emerged compared to January despite the economic activity slowing down since the last quarter of 2022. The number of employed persons increased by 10 thousand units on the previous month and the people in job seekers decreased by 12,000; in the same period the number of inactive people remained unchanged. These dynamics led to a stabilization of the official unemployment rate at 8.0%. In the same month, the hours authorized by the CIG were approximately 39.7 million, to which must be added just under 1.5 million hours for checks disbursed by solidarity funds. In terms of CIG hours actually used, seasonally adjusted and referred to Ula, it is estimated that this corresponds to around 81,000 standard work units. The combination of these dynamics led to a minimal reduction in the extended unemployment rate which fell to 8.9%.
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