Come on Italy, 30% votes for Meloni. But one blue out of two: the party will hold | Pagnoncelli’s survey

dat the birth of the coalition, thirty years ago, the political forces of the centre-right and their electorate have always been able to overcome their differences and show themselves united in all the consultations. Today we try to understand what are the proximity and what are the distances between the voters of the three main forces. We did this using five indicators: the profile of the electorate, perceived priorities, adherence to major political ideas, opinions on current issues and a question on the future of Forza Italia and its voters.

Let’s start with the voter profile. In general FI’s electorate seems rather transversal and strongly deployed in the centre-right, less on the right. FdI has a slightly older electorateof medium-high condition, also very present in large centres, with a greater position on the right. Finally, the League has a more popular electorate, with peaks between workers and pensioners, in the North, and with an important position on the right. The synthetic indicator of similarity, which takes into account all the aspects considered, tells us that overall there are more evident similarities between voters of FdI and those of the Lega than there are voters of FI. It should be remembered that in last year’s general elections, about half of FdI’s voters had voted for Lega in the 2019 European Championships. A transfer of votes towards Meloni which explains these similarities.

The second indicator relates to perceived priorities. If the first priority, reducing the tax burden, is identical for all three electorates, FdI and Lega, reversing the order, place the same requests in the next two places (security and the fight against immigration), while FI places the most away from the migration theme and highlights the environmental one. The synthetic indicator tells us again that FdI and Lega have electorates closer to each other, a little less than those of Forza Italia.

We come to political ideas. Here the differences of Come on Italy they are even more evident. His voters put liberalism first, and therefore the Christian-democratic tradition and, little surprise, social democracy. Which is currently the European ally of the People’s Party. The range of popularism instead mitigated among the voters of the other two forces. The synthetic indicator gives us data similar to the previous ones: FdI and Lega are similar, FI distant, in particular from Lega.

Opinions on some topical issues show us two rather clear blocks: on institutional reforms (presidentialism and differentiated autonomy) and Europe, clear closeness between voters of FdI and Lega, albeit with some differences on autonomy; on Pnrr and war, on the contrary, clear closeness between FdI and Forza Italia. Basically, the voter of FdI maintains a certain skepticism about Europe, but understands the need for the Pnrr and takes sides in favor of Atlanticism.

Ultimately the future of Come on Italy after Berlusconi
. The Italians see the hypothesis that FI voters will transit towards Meloni (30%) prevail, even if not massively; followed by the hypothesis that FI will be able to hold up thanks to a new leadership capable of carrying forward Berlusconi’s political project (18%), while the other possibilities appear less probable given that only 12% expect a significant reduction in consensus to the advantage of the third pole and 11% an outflow towards the League. FI voters are largely convinced that a new leadership will be able to carry on the party without too many losses (46%) and are divided on the other scenarios: for 14% the consensus will go mainly to FdI, for 13% to the third pole and for 6% to the League. Brothers of Italy voters are more convinced that part of the vote for Berlusconi’s party will move to them (38%) and less than one in four Northern League supporters (23%) believe that their own party will be able to represent the landing place favorite.

In essence, a more marked similarity emerges between the electorate of the Brothers of Italy and the Leaguewhile that of Forza Italy is more distant, especially on more strictly European issues: popularism and support for the role of the Union. However, it is possible that there could be a rapprochement: Meloni’s positions on these issues are today more nuanced than those of the electoral campaign, based on realism, and it is not said that a composition will not be reached even on the Mes. If this path continues, it appears necessary to better structure Forza Italia’s leadership to mitigate the risk of spills.

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