Brothers of Italy rises to 31.4%, Lega to 7.3%. M5S surpasses Pd | Political polls

The usual monthly update of the political scenario highlights the increase in consensus for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the government, a result that is anything but obvious taking into account both the difficulties encountered by the executive in November, and the inevitable confrontation with his predecessor Mario Draghi who left the scene with the highest approval rating of all Prime Ministers who have succeeded in leading the country over the past 30 years.

Today almost one out of two Italians (49%) expresses a positive opinion on Giorgia Meloni and 46% on the government, while negative evaluations are equal to 35% and 38% respectively. Compared to last month, the approval rating (ratio between positives and negatives excluding those who do not express an opinion) rises by four points for both the executive (from 51 to 55) and for the prime minister (from 54 to 58). The consensus is therefore decidedly wider than in the electoral pool of the majority parties (26.7% of the total number of voters) and shows an opening of credit on the part of the citizens; undoubtedly the judgments reflect positive reactions to the main provisions contained in the Budget law, including the changes to the basic income (with the prospect of its abolition from 2024), the raising of the limit on the use of cash, the introduction of the 103 quota for pensions, the extension of the flat tax, in addition to the confirmation of some of the social bonuses already in force supplemented by other measures, such as the reduction of the tax wedge for the lowest incomes and the increase of the single allowance for the first years of the children’s life. It follows that the consensus for the premier is almost plebiscitary among the voters of the Brothers of Italy (index 95), of the League (93) and of Forza Italia together with Noi moderatei (85) and is more marked among people of economic condition high (index 65), among entrepreneurs, managers and freelancers (66), among self-employed workers (64), in the white-collar classes (63) and blue-collar workers (62), while it is decidedly below the average among the most in difficulty (46 unemployed and 46 people of low economic status), among students (35), in addition to voters of the Democratic Party (28) and the 5 Star Movement (31).

Even the approvals for the parties show significant changes, especially compared to the electoral result of two months ago. FdI consolidates its leadership reaching 31.4% of voting intentions, an increase of 1.6% compared to October and a good 5.4% compared to policies. In second place is the M5S with 17.5% (+1.5%) overtaking the Pd which drops to 17.2% (-1.6%). Followed by the League which further loses ground (-0.7%) settling at 7.3%, then Forza Italia, recovering (+0.7%), paired with Azione-Italia viva at 6.8%. Worth noting is the positive trend (+0.5%) of the Greens-Left-Civic Networks alliance which recorded 4.2%. Overall, the centre-right, led by Giorgia Meloni’s party, reached 46.7% of the votes, gaining ground (+5.5%) on the centre-left (23.5%), a further drop compared to the result of the polls. The non-vote area is also on the increase and reaches 40%. By cumulating all the data collected with the surveys carried out in the month of November (over 4,000 cases) it is possible to analyze with a good level of reliability the electoral flows with respect to the vote cast on 25 September. Well, above all two elements emerge: the further loss of the Lega and FI electorate in favor of FdI (which, moreover, benefits from the higher loyalty rate) and the outflow of Pd voters more directed towards the M5S and the forces to his left (as well as towards abstention) with respect to the third pole of Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi.

Lastly, the satisfaction of the leaders: Giuseppe Conte with an index of 33 marks an increase of three points compared to the end of October, leads the ranking and returns to the values ​​prior to the end of the Draghi government (when he recorded a sharp drop of 7 points). Matteo Salvini is confirmed in second place (26), followed by Silvio Berlusconi (23), Maurizio Lupi and Carlo Calenda (paired with 20). Enrico Letta is further relegated, losing 5 points (17). On the rise Nicola Fratoianni and Angelo Bonelli despite the Aboubakar Soumahoro affair.

The government and Giorgia Meloni (and, consequently, FdI) appear healthy thanks to the consensus for the main measures of the Budget law and benefit from the divisions within the opposition; overall they don’t seem to be affected too much by the controversies aroused by some «symbolic measures» and some «stumbling blocks», such as the tensions with France following the story of the Ocean Viking ship and the provisions modified in the short span of a few days, such as the law on rave parties or the bonus for weddings in the Church.

However, once the season of (almost) national unity is over, the radicalization of positions on the hottest issues is emerging, from which the M5S and the left-wing political forces with their respective leaders currently benefit, while the Democratic Party after the electoral defeat is at dealt with a complex pre-congress phase and with the strong competition with the other opposition forces. Furthermore, he has to deal with the strong internal tensions that have made the famous definition that Massimo D’Alema gave of the Democratic party some time ago: “An unsuccessful amalgam”. It is a definition that refers to the unresolved question of identity and positioning (“reformist” or “leftist”) which risks wearing down a party which in its 15 years of life has had 7 secretaries and 2 regents, and making it end up of Buridan’s ass.