Autonomy, the three knots to untie

Autonomy, the three knots to untie

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NoonFebruary 10, 2023 – 11:35 am

Of Claudius Scamardella

History advises humility to those who dare to make predictions. But there are some well-founded reasons for maintaining that the Calderoli bill on differentiated autonomy remains only a flagship provision, without effective implementation. Many commentators and esteemed technicians on the subject, critical of the design, have already underlined how the cumbersome procedures, some bordering on constitutionality, can make the implementation of the project complicated, if not bumpy. This forecast can also be shared because, in addition to the botched technicalities (certainly not accidental), the evolution of the political scenario in the coming months could untie three knots in a direction totally unfavorable to differentiated regionalism. The first node concerns the League. The start of the process was achieved at the moment of maximum political and electoral weakness of the party in recent years, even in the northern regions, now outclassed by the strength and clear primacy of Fdi. an objective conquered in reverse, with entrenchment in one’s fort after the controversial secessionist, federalist and then national seasons.

Sovereign regionalism now seems to be the landing stage of a downward spiral, a sort of defensive option that no longer even speaks to the whole of the North. As demonstrated by the critical positions clearly expressed by exponents of the northern productive and entrepreneurial world, starting with the national president of Confindustria, as well as by all the trade unions. A weakness, that of the League, which could be even more evident in the Lombardy regional elections, next Sunday and Monday. If the polls are confirmed, the party should exit the vote further downsized, retaining the leadership of the Lombard fortress only thanks to the result of FdI. In this case, the crisis of Salvini’s leadership would not erupt immediately, but the strength of the party in influencing future government policies would certainly be compromised. Also on the path of differentiated autonomy. To this we must add that, having passed the regional elections on Sunday and Monday, the next truly indicative test for the parties and their leaders, as well as for the government, will be the European elections in 2024. Elections with pure proportional representation, where the coalitions (and the opposition divisions) do not count. And where the vote of the South will be very heavy and not at all obvious. We will witness a different electoral competition compared to the Policies of last September, with a solitary race of parties: it is easy to foresee that Fdi and Forza Italia will have no interest in presenting themselves in the South with the weight of having complied with the diktats of the League. And here comes the second knot which, in a short time, will have to be untied.


To give the green light to the bill on differentiated autonomy a government led by a prime minister who never misses an opportunity, in her utterances, to resort obsessively to the terms of nation and homeland (instead of country), leader of a party that from a centralist and statist political culture, as well as with a past of strong roots in the South, albeit tempered in recent times by a Northern twist to capture votes in the northern regions. Continuing to talk about a nation while, at the same time, the green light is given to many small homelands cannot last long. Nationalist patriotism and regionalist patriotism are, in fact, two antithetical options, starting with the implementation of the Mattei Plan – in which the imprint of a nationalist statism clearly emerges – on which the premier is betting a lot of her credibility. And she certainly cannot be the smoky and unrealistic flag of presidentialism to represent the point of balance between the two extremes. Already in recent weeks, the Northern League’s acceleration has been supported by the premier and his party, as well as by FI, as a concession to the ally in difficulty rather than as a fully shared project, and has produced ill-concealed annoyances as well as (off-record) statements aimed at reassuring about the (non) effective realization of the project. It is easy to predict, also in this case, that the closer the Europeans get, the more contradictions will explode in the centre-right. The third node concerns the Democratic Party, heir to that centre-left which was the true generator of differentiated autonomy, at the legislative and constitutional level, with the reform of Title V in 2001, certainly not out of conviction but to chase and mimic, in an awkward and unfortunate, the League in an attempt to remove the flag of federalism from him. A centre-left which, up until a few weeks ago, was still completely subordinate on this issue. The result is there for all to see: the heirs of that great mess not only have never touched the ball in the North in the last twenty years, but have lost a lot of credibility in the South. A masterpiece.

And yet, if the Democratic Party has one chance of surviving and regenerating today, it is that of investing, as has been observed from many quarters, in the prairie that is opening up in the South, trying to contain and disarticulate the political-social bloc with a northern traction that dictates the agenda in the country for thirty years. Without fearing the admission of the macroscopic blunder of 2001 and definitively distancing itself from the wavering line on differentiated autonomy followed, in recent years, by the national party and the regional sultanates. More than a possibility, in truth, a compulsory path for the entire Democratic Party, even in the north. And the candidates for the secretariat seem to be realizing it. If these three knots are resolved in the foreseen framework, the Calderoli bill will not have an easy life and, on the contrary, the recent forcing by the Northern League could turn out to be a boomerang, producing the most classic heterogeneity of goals. Much will depend on the South, on its ability to keep its guard up, not to abandon the mobilization, to start talking and forging alliances with those sectors of northern society that are developing a conscious rejection of strengthened regionalism. And, above all, to pursue a basic objective: to seize this passage to finally overturn the table on which the (rigged) game of the reorganization of the State has been playing for two decades in the direction of a botched, harmful and increasingly anachronistic para-federalism regionalist. Also questioning the very existence of the Regions.

February 10, 2023 | 11:35

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