After Qatargate, Avramopoulos’ chances are down. As a correspondent for the Gulf, he “goes back” to Di Maio-Corriere.it

There is an unforeseen consequence in the misadventures of theformer European Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos. Involved in the schemers of Pier Antonio Panzeri, from whom he admitted to having received fees of 60 thousand euros between February 2021 and February 2022, the conservative Greek politician immediately resigned from the board of Fight Impunity, the NGO at the center of the so-called Qatargate, in which he claims he has never had any executive or management responsibility. But the dutiful presumption of innocence does not mean that the chances of Avramopoulos, a member of the EPP, of obtaining the post of EU special envoy to the Gulf countries, a brand new post created by the High Representative, are now reduced to zero for Foreign Policy, Joseph Borrell, to better focus Europe’s action on energy supply and international assistance.

And this, according to European sources, raises the prices of former Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, the other excellent candidate, who among other things is the first on the short list selected by the panel responsible for examining the names at stake. However, the distancing of the head of the Farnesina, Antonio Tajani, plays against Di Maio, who already at his debut had put his hands forward, saying that his predecessor “is not the candidate of this Italian government” but was proposed by the ” previous government”.

It’s not quite like that. And to understand it, we need to go back. This reconstruction is the result of numerous interviews with diplomatic sources and informed people. It was Di Maio himself, at the beginning of the summer, who set his sights on the new position created by Borrell, with whom he had established a good personal relationship. It is important to underline that this is not a government appointment, in the sense that there is not a box that different governments try to fill with their own name. In this case it is a candidacy, which is accessed by qualifications and which is then evaluated by a technical panel, complete with an audition.

For this reason it is not accurate to say, as some claim, that it was Mario Draghi to launch it, by way of compensation for the “sacrifice” of Di Maio, who paid dearly for the split from the Five Stars to support his government. Which does not mean that the former prime minister did not support him. «Engaging massively», as he claims Der Spiegel? No. More likely, the sources say, expressing themselves in a positive sense with Borrell, who asked for references on Di Maio, just as he did for all the others. It’s hard to imagine that the former premier didn’t speak well of his head of diplomacy.

In reality, Di Maio had to study and slave over the summer months, with the help of some top-level coaches. Among these, the secretary general of the Farnesina and former chief of staff Ettore Sequi, decisive in the preparation phase of the candidacy. Two other “coaches” were Ambassador Stefano Sannino, secretary general of the EEAS, the European External Action Service, therefore de facto Borrell’s deputy, and Fernando Gentilini, an Italian diplomat also seconded to the EEAS, where he directed the desk for the Middle East and North Africa, as well as the author of very interesting books on Afghanistan and Israel. The preparation went well, if it is true that after the talks the panel put Di Maio at the head of the short list, which includes, in addition to Avramopoulos, also the former Cypriot foreign minister, Markos Kyprianou and the diplomat Slovak Jan Kubis, former head of the UN mission in Libya.

On the political level, someone who has been Foreign Minister for three years he certainly meets the requirements of the position. On a technical level, some doubts are legitimate: «Di Maio – he said to Le Monde a former Italian energy manager — he doesn’t have the basics to understand energy dossiers, but he is considered someone who studies and applies himself. In reality, the task is quite nebulous and it will be difficult for anything to change: the producing states will continue to deal with the national companies”.

The most important handicap, however, remains Tajani’s distance. In fact, Borrell might hesitate to propose a name that is not appreciated by one of the founding countries. Of course, one can argue that perhaps it is always better to have an Italian rather than the representative of another country in a European position. But another obstacle is a certain hostility in the United Arab Emirates, where the memory of the diplomatic crisis of 2021 is still alive, triggered by the block on arms exports, decided by Di Maio to sanction his involvement in the conflict in Yemen“The appointment of Di Maio as EU envoy to the Gulf must hide a European sense of irony that escapes me,” said Mohammed Baharoon, who heads the Dubai Policy Research Center.

But Avramopoulos’ certain departure from the scene, European sources explain, makes the former Italian foreign minister “the strongest candidate”. Behind schedule, the decision, which must be approved by a qualified majority by the Council, could be taken in the next few days.