Advertising, declining investments and the market hopes for a boost from the World Cup
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The hope is in the World Cup starting on November 20. From the event that will take place exceptionally this year in Qatar (with annexed and connected protests that are a little late that have been taking shape in recent weeks), a boost is expected on a market that in September – and more generally in the first nine months of the year – closed with a marked plus sign: -2.2% in the month and -1.5% in the nine months. And this considering also Google, Facebook and Twitter (which give no indications and for which Nielsen only makes estimates). Without the OTTs, the losses would be even greater: -4.9% in the month and -4.5% in the nine months.
The numbers
Considering in the calculation the giants of the web – which, moreover, have a preponderant weight as written among others by GroupM which attributes 53% of the total world collection to the five players of the market – in the month of September in Italy the collection according to Nielsen data was it amounted to just over 786 million euros: 18 less than in September 2021. And in the January-September period, advertising investments in Italy amounted to 6.07 billion euros: 92 million less than a year earlier.
The wait for the World Cup
«We are in a complex moment – says Alberto Dal Sasso, Adintel Southern Europe Cluster Leader of Nielsen – between negative tensions that we have come to know and less negative macroeconomic results than expected. GDP in the third quarter grew by + 0.5% despite the bad forecasts that came from various quarters with an acquired growth, that is, in the hypothesis of a fourth quarter at zero, at the end of the year of +3.9 percent. Waiting for the atypical winter world championships, the fourth quarter will bring further interesting communication opportunities for companies, so we expect a recovery for the market towards the end of the year ».
Digital surpasses TV
With regard to individual media, TV is down by 6.7% annually in September (291.7 million) and -8.6% in the January-September period (2.38 billion). The print is negative. The newspapers, in September, collected 40.6 million euros (-1.1%) which rose to 302.2 million in the cumulative period (-4%). Even more marked downturn in the single month of September for magazines: -11.7% (to 21.9 million euros of inflows) with the cumulative period that closes at -2.6% (143 million euros). Radio was also down in the single month (-1.4% to 29.7 million) while maintaining an improvement in the nine months: the cumulative period closed at + 3.5% with revenues of 254.5 million euro. Based on the estimates made by Nielsen, the collection of the entire universe of web advertising in the period January-September closed with a + 2.7% at 2.68 billion (-3.8% if we consider only the Fcp AssoInternet perimeter: at 333 million) . More advertising investments, therefore, than those catalyzed by the TV medium.
The sectors
There are 12 product sectors on the rise in September. The largest contribution is brought by the sectors of Entities / Institutions (+ 67.7%), Tourism / Travel (+ 92.1%), Clothing (+ 12.5%), Home Management (+ 11.4%). In September investments in Cars (-12.9%), Food (-16.8%), Distribution (-17.4%) and Telecommunications (-18.7%) were down. With regard to the sectors with a higher market share, the positive trend of Housing (+ 5.4%), Tourism / Travel (+ 78.6%) and Personal Care (+ 6.3%) was highlighted in the nine months.
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