2022 losses recovered in one month – Corriere.it

They were five unforgettable weeks, culminating in two extraordinary days, Tuesday 31st January and Thursday 2nd February. In the first Unicredit closed on the Stock Exchange with a +12.3 percent, in the second all the bigs touched their medium-term highs.

Since that Monday 2 January, the first day the markets opened in the new year, in 25 sessions the index of banks listed on Piazza Affari has gained like no other in Europe. Let me be clear: there is a lot of land to recover. For about 10 years, what had long been the safe of Italian savers had lost appeal, charm, profitability. The rate cut, necessary to support economies close to collapse, has deprived the banks of oxygen, whose revenues remained hanging on the sole item of the Commissions, while revenues from interest fell day by day, from quarter to quarter.

Turns

The turning point came after the middle of last year, with the decision of the central banks to raise rates to combat inflation suddenly capable of galloping. The interest channel has started to swell again after years of drought and is now pumping liquidity into lenders’ balance sheets. With obvious effects. Unicredit after the blaze on the day of the annual results, reached a new high on Thursday 2 February, at 18.488 euros. To find a similar price, you need to go back five years, to April 22, 2018. The sprint of the bank led by Andrea Orcel is impressive at times. On April 28 of last year it was worth 8.58 euros on the stock exchange. Until after the summer holidays, the value recognized for the bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti was well below 10 euros. On 21 August it was at 9.10 euros, since then it has more than doubled in value.

The path of Intesa Sanpaolo is less sensational, which, moreover, last Friday handed over to the archives a 2022 with 5.5 billion in net profit to which are added 1.4 billion in prudential provisions. Over the years, the group led by Carlo Messina has avoided the daring descents in which Unicredit has instead often been involved, so the ascents have been less sensational, more in the sign of the regularity of the pass. Equally, it was almost a year that Intesa Sanpaolo’s share did not reach the levels of these days. Exactly from February 27, 2022, the third day after the invasion of Ukraine, when prices were at the beginning of a long descent. Last Friday, the market gave a cold welcome to Intesa’s results, with the stock sold and prices down by 3 percent.

Widespread recoveries

Intesa and Unicredit, put together, are worth 60 percent of the stock market value of Italian banks. Easy then, with similar performance, drag the whole price list. In truth, the other banks raced independently towards recovery. In the last year, as known, Banco Bpm has the primacy of earnings. And in this beginning of 2023, the bank that has Giuseppe Castagna at the helm has confirmed itself as a protagonist. In one year, Banco Bpm has gained over 42 percent on the Stock Exchange, ahead of all its competitors, from Bper (+31%) to Credem (+22%), up to asset management specialists such as Mediolanum (+1.5%) , Banca Generali (-6%), FinecoBank (+10%), and those of other sectors: Mediobanca (-4%) or Bff (+25%).

Monte dei Paschi di Siena deserves a separate discussion. The bank led by Luigi Lovaglio has just returned from a capital increase of 2.5 billion euros which practically eliminated the previous investments and also the share price was heavily affected by the values ​​of the increase. In one year, the Mps share has practically zeroed its value, losing 88 percent. However, if the analysis of the numbers focuses on the management of Lovaglio, who arrived in Siena just one year ago, some relevant elements are highlighted. In October, the capital increase was carried out by paying 2 euros for the new shares. On 4 November, they touched a low at 1.4866 euros. Last Friday they were over 2.5, which means a gain of about 70 percent from the lows and more than 25 percent from the placement price at which new shareholders entered. Investors don’t like recovery stories and if there are those who project Mps towards important prospects it is also true that there are many unknowns to be resolved.

Residual spaces

In the sector as a whole there are many double-digit growths, which explain the run-up. Equally there are other elements that suggest that there is more room for growth. First of all, the ECB put fuel in the engine of the banks, which by raising rates feeds the flow of interest. Half a percentage point last week, half a percentage point next month. This means that interest will continue to flow and increase in bank accounts. the return to a normality that many had forgotten. Other factors that push towards optimism in the sector concern the room for further growth. Above all, the macro perspectives offer avenues for growth. The expected recession seems to be losing strength and removing its effects, watering them down. The settlement of international conflicts could represent the start of a new phase of expansion. Will it be so? This will be understood only in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, this week, the results of several other protagonists will support the fate of the sector. Today, February 7, double appointment with Banco Bpm and Monte dei Paschi di Siena. On Wednesday 8 it will be the turn of Bper Banca, on Thursday 9 of Mediobanca which, closing the financial statements on 30 September, will present the half-yearly report.

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