20.7%. Consensus for the government holds, that for Prime Minister Meloni-Corriere.it is growing

da few weeks many are wondering if the honeymoon between the Italians and the government has ended. Judging by today’s poll, it would not appear, given that compared to March approval for the government’s work leads to an increase of one point
(today 44% express themselves positively on the executive) and that of the prime minister by two points (46% positive evaluations) bringing the approval rating (calculated excluding those who do not express themselves) to 51 and 53 respectively. Analyzing the monthly trend of the index, apart from today’s slight growth, a drop of 4-5 points can be observed compared to the months of November and December, when the highest consensus levels were recorded. This is a decrease in line with or less than those recorded for most of the governments that have successively led the country from 2006 onwards, six months after taking office. Overall, therefore, it remains strong polarization of opiniongiven that supporters and detractors are essentially the same.

How can the stability of consensus be explained in the face of decisions that have aroused controversy and tensions between the majority and the opposition and within the majority? Several possible answers can be put forward: the first refers to the basic choices of the government which have had a reassuring effect even among a part of the non-centre-right electorate: relations with the EU, Atlanticism, position on the conflict in Ukraine, keeping public accounts; the second takes into account the macroeconomic framework which has seen the risk of war avoided recession and has recorded a slowdown in inflation and the reduction of energy costs; the third possible answer refers to the relative transversal nature of the centre-right electorate which determines opposite reactions to the individual measures, some of which dissatisfy a part of their electorate but satisfy another, obtaining a sort of compensatory effect, as also happened with the yellow-green government in the last legislature as well as in the first year of the Renzi government. For example, the interventions in the tax field have disappointed some segments belonging to the productive classes (who expected more significant reductions), but have obtained the consent of the employees; and we could continue with measures that have reduced the citizen’s income, the failure to reform the Fornero law, bathing establishments, etc. A final reason concerns the lack of a cohesive opposition which leads many people to trust and rely on those who lead the country.

In the face of government holding, some variations in the voting guidelines are observed, starting from bending of

FdI which, while maintaining its first place with 29%, is down by 1.3% compared to March, while the other forces of the coalition are stable (Lega 8%) or slightly growing: Forza Italia goes from 7.2% to 8% pairing the League and Noi Moderati increases by 0.3%. In the opposition, the Democratic Party, which already after the election of Elly Schlein to the secretariat had registered an increase of two points, in today’s poll increased by another 1.7%, settling at 20.7% . Followed by the M5S stable in third place with 16.5% (-0.3%), then the third pole with 5.2%, down by one point following the divorce trials. It should be noted that, separately, the two political forces return to the values ​​prior to the alliance. Finally, the gray area of ​​abstention increases again, albeit slightly (0.5%), rising to 39.3%. As for the approval of the leaders, Schlein is confirmed in first place with an index equal to 33 ahead Giuseppe Conte (32) and Silvio Berlusconi who scores an increase of 4 points, going from 26 to 30, presumably due to his delicate health conditions which have led to reactions of closeness on the part of many.

In conclusion, the government and the prime minister maintain their consensus and the political scenario shows an interesting dynamic that could evolve further in the light of many factors: from the expected changes with the new leadership of the Democratic Party in terms of political proposals and alliances, to consequences of the divorce between Calenda and Renzi, the changes in the internal balance of Forza Italia and the balance of power between the majority parties. The European elections are a year away and it is easy to predict that despite the growing importance assumed by the EU in the three years of poly-crisis (pandemic, war in Ukraine, energy crisis and inflation), the next electoral round will be experienced as usual due to the internal, like a check on the state of health of the Italian parties.