Work and GDP, because the aging population is good news – Corriere.it

How many excessive alarms for the aging of the population. Still, it’s good news to have 20 years to live: a great gift. But it is also a great opportunity for society and for the state. Certainly today we are unprepared and politicians have to make a little more effort to prepare for the biggest demographic transition of all time with precise programmes: among these, prevention and screening, new protections such as long term care, new employment contracts which allow lengthening working lives, continuous training and, if necessary, a gradual increase in the retirement age. But it can be done. Aging is not only a cost for the community but also an economic opportunity: our oil as defined by Roberto Bernabei, one of the leading experts in the sector. And yes, because those who at the time of the Brodolini reform of 1969 were considered elderly, when life expectancy was 65 years, today are lively young elders, often eager to be useful to society. Only a madness like the Madia law could put pensioners on the bench and if they work they can only do it for a few months and for free. We age and on the other hand, if even today we started having children at full speed – since the problem seems to be empty cradles and not total unpreparedness for the demographic transition – at the peak moment of aging between 2040 and 2050 these newborns would still be on school desks.

What it means to enter the silver economy

So, let’s equip ourselves for an aging society, which changes the age structure of the population (rather than building new schools, perhaps it is better to provide mixed housing for young and old) and where the family is also changing, ever smaller and one-third nuclear powered. For some time now we have entered the silver economy, i.e. the consumption economy typical of 50-65 year olds (due to new lifestyles) and the over 65s. Activities to meet these needs affect more and more people. If in 1980 the over 65s were 13.1% of the population and the over 80s only 2.1%, today we are at 24% and 7.6% respectively and in 2050 we will be at 35% and 4.1% . Already today the over 65s in Italy are more than 14 million. But it’s not just the sheer number of people that swell this great new economy. There are also income streams that are the highest for those aged 55 and over compared to other age groups. Not only that: in all the major economic crises, from 2008 to Covid, those who have been least affected by the difficulties and have maintained or even increased their income are pensioners and the over 55s. After all, the annual flow is close to 300 billion net of pensions and benefits. Which are less affected by inflation, given the revaluation at least for pensions up to four times the minimum (just over 2100 euros).

The over 65s are the main holders of wealth

It’s not just about annual income streams. These silvers are also among the primary holders of wealth. People over 65 have an average movable and real estate asset which, discounted to 1 January 2022, is around 300 thousand euros; multiplying this value by 14.051 million subjects we arrive at a total of silver wealth equal to 4 thousand 173.14 billion euros. Considering household wealth for 2022 equal to 10 thousand 900 billion lire also made up of 14% ownership of companies or businesses and 3% real assets owned by over 65s such as private banking management, it can be estimated that 24% Approximately of the population made up of people over 65 hold almost half of the national wealth. It is therefore an important capitalization which over the next 25 years will be partly destined to increase the volumes of silver consumption and a substantial part will be transferred to children or relatives (the natural generational transition). Which are mostly the over 40s of today and who will progressively become the over 65s from 2045 onwards, further increasing the overall value of the Italian silver economy.

The impact on GDP

But let’s also see what impact this economy can generate in Italy in terms of GDP, added jobs, new businesses and startups. By applying to Italy the calculation method adopted by the European Commission to evaluate the impacts and dimensions of the silver economy in the Union, considering that almost all the incomes of the over 65s will be spent on consumption or support for family members, we can calculate that this flow of resources generates employment between 4.6 and 5.46 million workers. Also included in this estimate are regular and irregular carers, RSA and medical personnel and suppliers of goods and services purchased from silver. The lowest datum was calculated by the Study and Research Center Social Security Routes on sources relating to Italy, while the highest datum was obtained by applying the method of the European Commission. With the same criterion we can calculate the impact on the gross domestic product of the over 65s, and therefore of the entire silver economy, which can be estimated at around 350 billion euros or about 20% of GDP in 2021. Again, if for the over 50s, the estimated impact on GDP would rise to around 583 billion euros (just under a third of 2021 GDP). As can be seen, the demographic transition is not only a risk but also a great opportunity for the entire community, not only from an economic point of view but above all from a social and ethical point of view. With the economic slowdown produced by demography there will be a change in lifestyles. We will probably have less overall GDP and perhaps more per capita GDP but also more humanity, less advertising and therefore a change in values. A transition from a man who consumes even the useless, in an increasingly deviant capitalism, to a human being with the value of time and personal and social growth. Not an unhappy degrowth but an ethically happy life.