what is valid for Italy – Corriere.it

Grain exports from Ukraine will be allowed to continue: Black sea grain initiativethe UN agreement that four months ago unblocked trade flows from Ukrainian ports and expires on November 19, has been extended for another four months, as was first announced by the Ukrainian infrastructure minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, on Twitter. The minister added that Ukraine has made an official call to extend the deal for one year and to include the port of Mykolaiv; but, for now, the extension concerns the next 4 months.

What arrived in Italy from Ukraine

By analyzing what happened in the last 120 days, it is therefore possible to understand how much the extension of the agreement is worth for a further 4 months. In Italy, after the agreement of last July 22, they have arrived overall 157 thousand tons of wheat, almost exclusively soft (5% of the total departed from Ukrainian ports), 624 thousand tons of corn (14% of the total) e 46 thousand tons of sunflower oil (7% of the total). what emerges from the elaborations of the Divulga study center which analyzed the trade flows recorded by the United Nations in the reference period on the routes of agricultural products departing from the ports of Chornomorsk (41.4% of the total), Yuzhny (32.8%) and Odessa (25.9%) in the last 120 days.

The effects of the agreement

In retrospect, the effects of the agreement signed four months ago can also be analysed. And hypothesize, prospectively, what the extension means. The agreement on the unblocking of the Black Sea ports – explains Professor Felice Adinolfi, director of the Divulga study center – is crucial for limiting the inflationary push, in any case fueled by the rise in energy and logistics prices. These are important quantities of agricultural products, the absence of which is a reason for a strong imbalance in the markets, as experienced in the months preceding the July agreement, in particular for the countries most dependent on exports, including those on the southern shore of the Mediterranean, whose budgets are heavily weighed down by the increase in agricultural raw materials and in particular by the increase in cereal prices. Hence also the effects of a geopolitical nature: The strong movement of wheat, corn, sunflower oil in these four months – concluded Adinolfi – averted the risk of a new Arab spring which, as we will recall, was triggered by the increase in bread prices.

The grain routes

So let’s see what were the routes of the cereals coming from the Ukrainian ports, beyond the quantities arriving in Italy. 41% of the grain (total 2.9 million tons), in particular soft wheat, departed from Ukrainian ports and reached the Asian area, 33% Europe and 26% African countries. Specifically, 25% of Ukrainian wheat reached Spain, 18% Turkey, 9% Bangladesh, 5% each for Italy, Tunisia, Algeria and Indonesia.

The corn routes

European countries were also the main beneficiaries of Ukrainian corn exports: out of 4.4 million tons of product, in fact, European ports were the destination of 60% of the product; 30%, however, reached Asia and 10% Africa. Analyzing in detail, Spain benefited from 20% of corn shipped from Ukrainian ports, Italy second with 14% of total Ukrainian exports, China third with 11%Turkey and the Netherlands follow with 10% each ahead of Egypt (6%) and Romania (5%).

The sunflower oil routes

The Asian area, on the other hand, with an overall 77% was instead the largest beneficiary of sunflower oil from Ukraine (690,000 tons in total), followed by Europe (22%) and Africa (1%). India, in particular, imported 30% of sunflower oil from ports, followed by Turkey (24%), China (12%), Italy (7%) and Romania (6%).

The weight of Ukraine

To better understand the weight of the agreement, it is necessary to highlight the weight of Ukraine on trade in agricultural products before the conflict with Russia. In 2021, Ukraine produced 1/3 of the world’s sunflower oil production and was the first world exporter, covering 46% of world sunflower oil exports, with 4.95 million tons for a value of 6, 4 billion dollars. The main destination countries were India (31%), the European Union (30%) and China (15%). Also in 2021, Ukraine exported 23 million tons of corn, covering 12% of world exports (the 4th in the world) for a value of 5.9 billion dollars. The main destination countries were China (32%) and the EU (30%). Followed by Egypt, Iran and Turkey. Ukraine, again in the year that preceded the outbreak of the conflict, exported 19 million tons of soft wheat, covering 9% of world exports (5 in the world) for a value of 5.1 billion dollars. The main destination countries were Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan and Bangladesh. With the renewal of the agreement, ships loaded with cereals can resume all these routes.

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