von der Leyen’s openings to Meloni-Corriere.it

Giorgia Meloni’s chill in these days on the hypothesis of an Italian ratification of the reform of the European Stability Mechanism means the opposite of what it appears: instead of putting herself on the sidelines of the games in the Union, the Italian premier feels so at the center that she can allow issues that embarrass her to be avoided. The parliamentary approval of the Mes is one of them, why it would bring out the ambiguities of a majority still traversed by deep-rooted anti-European currents.

But if Meloni feels he can hold out on this point, it is partly for the same reason that he has brought Ursula von der Leyen to Italy several times in recent months and yesterday to Tunis with the premier. The President of the Commission is in the running to succeed herself and she will have done the math. To have the trust of the European Parliament, the German Christian Democrat needs a reliable majority of (at least) 376 votes. The current one in Strasbourg – popular, more democratic socialists and Macronian liberals than Renew – in the latest poll by Der Föderalist at the end of May he would have 391 votes, a margin that does not put von der Leyen safe from snipers nestled above all among the German Social Democrats. Hence the idea of ​​an enlargement of the majority (not a reversal to the right), which makes the European “Conservatives and Reformists” chaired by Meloni courted. According to the latest poll, these number 79 MEPs, fourth in Strasbourg. That they are alien to the Greens’ perceived intransigence, which at this stage makes them unpopular with German industry and centrists, is a point for Melonians. After all the co-optation of the right in European consociativism would not be new: already in 2019 Law and justicethe party in power in Warsaw and Meloni’s ally, voted for the von der Leyen Commission (together with the 5 Stars).

Then there is another reason that allows the premier to continue to block the Mes: the other governments find the Italian veto an avoidable nuisance, but not so important (at least until the next banking crisis, when the safety net of the Mes could be useful).

Knots to untie

However, if in Italy it were concluded that the balance with the rest of the Union is under control, the awakening could be abrupt. Firstly because Meloni’s triumphal entry into consociativism would lead to other problems. The first is obvious: the law of numbers and relations with Berlin prevents the exclusion of socialists from von der Leyen’s majority, therefore the Italian prime minister should explain why in Rome she governs with the sovereigns of the League and in Brussels with the democratic party (today ) by Elly Schlein. Not only. The endorsement of von der Leyen in 2019 did not prevent a Law and justice to see European funds blocked for the repeated violations in Warsaw of the principles of a liberal democracy.

Keep up

Apart from the specific Polish problems, this point is decisive in Brussels: the Union does not live only on the politics that are carried out in the corridors, but on the law, rules, results and above all economic criteria. There is no majority that is needed for those who cannot keep up. For example, the delay in the revision of the Pnrr has left the Commission services doubtful that the problems in Rome are more serious than people think. The mission of the Brussels technicians today in Rome also aims to understand us better.

With 2024 in mind, von der Leyen works in his offices to ensure that the third installment of the 19 billion Pnrr is released, without partial payments. Maybe he will. But the Brussels services do not forget one point: Italy in 2021 collected the first installment thanks to the launch of a government model of the Pnrr that this executive has dismantled, without demonstrating that the current centralization at Palazzo Chigi works. From some other capitals it is observed with growing skepticism. Christian Damielsson, secretary of state for Europe of the Swedish presidency, says: «There must be an effective implementation of the Pnrr, also on the reforms. We have total confidence that the Commission will check that everything is done to the end”.