Usa, 2022 GDP above estimates and slowing inflation, but the trade deficit rises – Corriere.it

In the fourth quarter, according to preliminary data, US GDP increased at an annualized rate of 2.9% compared to the previous three months which had marked a growth of 3.2%, exceeding expectations which pointed to a plus 2.8% and allaying fears of the onset of a recession. The performance of the US gross domestic product in the second half therefore compensated for the contraction in the first part of the year, which had seen a drop of 1.6% in the first quarter and 0.6% in the second. Overall, according to the preliminary estimate, US GDP increased by 2.1% in 2022, down from the plus 5.9% post-pandemic rebound in 2021, but still expanding.

The consumption

Consumer spending, which accounts for 69 percent of the US economy, rose 2.1 percent after up 2.3 percent in the third quarter and up 2 percent in the second quarter, according to Commerce Department data. Exports, private inventory investment and non-residential fixed investment also grew, partly offset by declines in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, as well as rising imports. The increase in private consumption resulted from an increase in services, partly offset by a decline in goods. Within services, the increase was driven by ‘other’ services (mainly international travel), food and accommodation services and health care. The decrease in goods mainly reflects decreases in food and beverages as well as motor vehicles and components, partly offset by increases in recreational goods and motor vehicles and “other” non-durable goods (mainly pharmaceuticals). Export growth reflects increases in both goods and services. The pick-up in private inventory investment mainly reflects increases in the manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade industries.

The Fed

The data overall show a strong but slowing economy, while the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to control inflation, with interest rate hikes seven this year, are starting to show, as well as negative effects in particularly in the real estate market, even some results. The US price index PCE (Personal Consumption Exprenditure) in fact increased “only” by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to +4.3% in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased by 3.9% (against expectations for a round 4%), compared with a 4.7% increase in the previous quarter, according to the surveys of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. And positive news also comes from the labor market.

Unemployment benefits

In the United States, the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week ending Jan. 21 (characterized by the wave of jobless announcements in tech) fell by 6,000 to 186,000, according to reports. from the Department of Labor, compared to 192k (data revised upwards from the initial 190k) in the previous week and the expected increase to 205k. Even the average of the last four weeks, considered a more stable figure, fell below the 200,000 level, to 197,500, down 9,250 units from the previous week’s average. The total number of workers receiving unemployment benefits – relating to the week ending January 14, the last for which data is available – rose by 20,000 to 1,675,000, while the total number of workers receiving aid from various state and federal programs was 1,935,731 in the week ended Jan. 7, up 41,992 from the previous week.

Durable goods

Also positive was the data on orders for durable goods in the United States (such as cars, household appliances and electronic devices), which measure the cost of orders received from manufacturers of goods intended to last at least three years, which increased by 5.6% on a monthly basis December, with the sharpest increase since July 2020, and more than double the market forecast of plus 2.5%. Transportation equipment, up four times over the past five months, led the increase, by $15.5 billion (16.7 percent) to $108.1 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased by 0.1%; excluding Defense, they increased by 6.3%. Meanwhile, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a popular indicator of corporate spending plans, fell 0.2% from a month earlier in December 2022, in line with expectations. of the market. The automotive sector is up slightly, by 0.7%. As for deliveries, they are up by 0.5%, marking the 19th month of growth out of the last twenty, mainly thanks to the increase in deliveries of means of transport. Backorders and inventories are also growing, a trend that has been recorded for more than twenty months in both cases.

The trade deficit

Finally, however, the trade deficit worsened, rebounding in December to 90.3 billion dollars, from the minimum for almost two years of 82.9 billion dollars recorded in November, according to a preliminary estimate. Imports increased by 1.9 per cent, after the sharp decline in the previous month, mainly driven by purchases of motor vehicles (9.4 per cent) and consumer goods (6.6 per cent). Meanwhile, exports fell again, by 1.6%, due to lower sales of industrial supplies (-5.1%) and consumer goods (-1.7%). Sales of food, feed, beverage and vehicle sales increased by 5.0% and 2.2%, respectively. Looking at the full year 2022, the goods trade deficit increased to $1.19 trillion from $1.08 trillion in 2021. The preliminary estimate only takes into account goods.

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