Upward estimates for Lombardy. Closed the pre-Covid gap in Work

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More robust growth, work in progress. In Assolombarda’s estimates, the 2023 estimates for Lombardy improve, starting with a 0.8% GDP growth, compared to the +0.6% estimated three months ago.

Also for the current year, this is an expected performance higher than the Italian one, +0.7% in Prometeia’s evaluations.

In the estimates of the Assolombarda study center highlighted in the latest edition of the Booklet on the economy, the forecasts for employment are also improving: +1.2% in Lombardy in 2023, from +0.8% in January. Which will therefore make it possible to bridge the gap with the pre-Covid situation: +0.6% of employed people in the region compared to 2019

«This result – explains president of Assolombarda Alessandro Spada – confirms the stability and economic vitality that we had repeatedly reported in the first months of the year with reference to Lombard companies. Despite a global context in deceleration, the renewed competitiveness and historical flexibility have allowed our companies to achieve positive results and to find new market spaces. However, there are critical elements to monitor. One above all inflation, which we hope will decrease during the year. But the difficulty in finding suitable professional figures on the labor market is also worrying, a problem that affects 45.6% of planned recruitments. We are facing a real skills emergency that risks becoming unsustainable due to the competitive challenges to which we are called. In this scenario, ITS are in absolute contrast, with an 80% employment rate of their graduates at national level, with peaks of excellence in some sectors of our territory, such as mechatronics and ICT. It is therefore necessary to proceed as soon as possible with the implementation of the ITS reform and with the completion of the procedure for allocating the residual resources envisaged by the PNRR (700 million), enhancing the planning role of the regions on the territory”. The most favorable economic framework finds confirmation in the latest data released by the European Commission, which revised upwards the estimates of Italian GDP, as well as in the indications collected in early May by Assolombarda with the ‘flash survey on business sentiment’.

According to the Association’s Study Centre, the share of companies that predict a more positive 2023 for the regional economy compared to last year has grown to 37% (it was 28% in the survey at the end of January), while the percentage of those who anticipate a decrease compared to the rhythms of 2022 (from the previous 36%). One of the elements that contributes to the improvement of the overall picture is the easing of pressure on prices: most of the responding companies believe that inflation has already reached its maximum point in recent months and, therefore, that in 2023 there will be it will be a decline (52%) or stability (31%).