Transport, emissions, renewables: Italy’s opportunities and delays in the European green pact

Italy’s progress with respect to the objectives of the green deal (green pact) is at the center of a research by Openpolis, carried out with other editorial teams of Edjnet and under the direction of Deutsche Welle, to verify the progress of individual countries. In the research Deutsche Welle identified 7 metrics to quantify the progress of EU countries with respect to the objectives of the green deal. The main goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 57% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. Italy is still far from its sustainable growth objectives. The latest declared goal is to reduce car emissions by 55% compared to 2021 levels. In 2021, 13.5% of cars circulating in urban environments are low-emissions.

Research

At the end of 2019, the European Commission introduced a series of proposals to enable Europe to reach the goal of climate neutrality by 2050. Most of the targets identified in this set of strategies and action plans have reference 2030.

Where are the member countries today?

The Openpolis Foundation reconstructed it together with 7 other newsrooms that are part of the European data journalism network (Edjnet), under the direction of Deutsche Welle, which identified the quantifiable objectives envisaged by the EU and the related indicators. In order to measure the progress of the various countries and their prospects in the near future.

The goals for 2030 set by the green deal

The European Green Deal is the name given to the set of strategies and action plans that the European Commission has proposed to address the challenge of climate change. The program includes a series of directives, regulations and initiatives aimed at various sectors affected or responsible for climate change, and foresees investments of at least one trillion euros. Resources largely coming from the long-term budget of the Union, but also, in large quantities, from private individuals.

What is the European green deal

It is a very ambitious plan, which mobilizes huge resources and which, precisely because of its scope, constitutes a significant challenge for the coming years. It is not clear whether climate neutrality is compatible with economic growth. Furthermore, the plan is not without its pitfalls. As Greenpeace has pointed out, the objectives set at European level may not be sufficient to achieve climate neutrality. This would be further complicated by the fact that the main objective of the green deal, in addition to sustainability, is economic growth. As also underlined by the European agency for the climate (EEA, acronym of the English European environmental agency), growth is in fact closely connected to increases in the production, consumption and use of resources. And therefore inevitably has harmful effects on the environment and human health.

The 7 metrics behind research

To carry out this research on the progress of the European Green Pact, Deutsche Welle has identified 7 basic metrics, divided by sector and corresponding to the main objectives identified by the commission itself. The first consists of a generic indicator relating to emissions, measured in tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Two, on the other hand, concern the use of renewable energy sources and measure the share of final consumption on the one hand and the capacity of the plants on the other. Another indicator concerns buildings, in particular heat pump installations. Finally, the emissions of cars for the transport sector, the use of pesticides for agriculture and the production of hydrogen for industry.

The emission reduction target

One of the most problematic aspects of man’s impact on the Earth is the emission of greenhouse gases. It is a set of pollutants that lead to an alteration of the balance of ecosystems, damaging those who live there. For this reason, Deutsche Welle has identified overall emissions data as the most meaningful metric for monitoring Europe’s progress against the plan. The latest proposal put forward by the European Commission is that relating to a 57% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This would mean a consumption equal to 2,000 megatons (mt) of CO2 equivalent, compared to the 4,687 recorded in 1990. According to the most recent data, relating to 2021, the EU has reduced its total emissions by 29.3% compared to 33 years ago. According to the EEA, with the measures in force, it would reach 3,109 meters in 2030. Therefore, a good thousand meters more than the target (2 thousand meters) and with a drop of just 33.7% compared to 1990 levels. A perspective that therefore sees Europe far from the pre-established goal. But let’s analyze the data disaggregated by country (available in 2020), to see how much the situation has improved in the individual member states. The picture that emerges is rather heterogeneous.

Greenhouse gas emissions in EU member countries between 1990 and 2020

In all but 3 countries (Cyprus, Austria and Ireland) greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere decreased between 1990 and 2020. In some cases the decrease was more marked, for example in Malta where it exceeded 90% or in Sweden where it was close to 80%. In the largest and most populous countries of the continent the reduction was more limited: it amounted to 43% in Germany, 32% in Italy, 27% in France and just 5% in Spain. It is important to stress, however, that 2020 data can be misleading. In fact, it was the year of the lockdown due to the Covid-19 health emergency, during which many activities involving the production or consumption of energy temporarily stopped. Overall, therefore, the decline is modest and far from the objectives set by the European green deal. In fact, if we analyze the variation between 1990 and 2019, instead of 2020, we see that an increase in greenhouse gas emissions was also recorded in Spain (+14%) and that instead there are only 3 countries where the decrease exceeded 57 %. We are talking about Estonia, Romania and Lithuania, with reductions of over 60%.

Italy and the objectives of the European Green Pact

In our country, greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 32% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels. By 25% if instead we refer to 2019. But how does Italy stand in relation to the other objectives identified?

Renewable energies

With regard to renewable energies, in 2022 the commission set the objective of achieving, by 2030, a contribution from renewable energies equal to 45% of total final consumption. Today in Italy the share is equal to 19%, according to Eurostat. Just 6 percentage points more than in 2010 and slightly below the EU average, equal to almost 22%. Again in the field of clean energy, another element is the power of solar and wind power plants. In this research, Deutsche Welle referred to the estimates and forecasts of the Ember research centre. The unofficial goal (because the commission has not explicitly formulated it) would be to reach, by 2030, wind power equal to 476 Gw and solar power equal to 600 Gw. At the latest data for 2021, Europe had reached 186.3 GW of wind energy and 110.7 GW of solar energy. The Italian contribution was equal respectively to 11.3 Gw for wind and 7.7 Gw for solar. The power of wind power in our country increased by around 3 Gw between 2010 and 2021. While the solar power more than halved, going from 16.8 Gw in 2010 to 7.7 in 2021 (and above all compared to 2020, when had reached 21.7 Gw).

Transport sector

For the transport sector, one of the main causes of air pollution, the goal is to halve emissions compared to 2021 levels. This is in fact the latest goal proposed by the commission, in 2022: to bring the greenhouse gas emissions produced from cars by 2030 to – 55% compared to 2021 levels, and then completely zero by 2035. One of the ways to reduce emissions in the transport sector, in addition to promoting the use of public transport, is the spread of low emission cars. Although these also present obstacles at an environmental level (such as the construction and disposal of lithium batteries) and infrastructure. In a recent study we talked about the scarce availability of charging stations in our country. By now, however, the widespread diffusion of low-emission vehicles and the total removal of polluting ones seems to be an obligatory step in view of the ecological transition. But in Italy there is still a long way to go from this point of view.

How widespread are low emission vehicles in Italy?

According to the latest Istat update on urban environments, on average in the provincial capitals and metropolitan cities the diffusion of this type of vehicle is still minor compared to cars with a higher polluting potential. 13.5% of cars circulating in the Italian capitals are low-emissions in 2021. A share that has however increased compared to 5 years ago, when it stood at 8.9%. The geographical differences are notable. In the north-east of the country, in fact, the share is close to 19%, while in the islands it does not reach 7%.

Electric cars are more common in the centre-north

The capital municipalities in which the diffusion of low-emission cars exceeds 20% are all located in Emilia-Romagna and in the Marches, with the exception of Rovigo (in Veneto). First of all Macerata with 27.1%. The lowest shares are instead recorded in the islands (particularly in Sardinia, where all the provincial capitals have an incidence of less than 6%), and in the areas closest to the Alpine arc. In the north, particularly low values ​​are reported in the capitals of Friuli-Venezia Giulia.