Tim deals exclusively with Kkr. But the uncertainty and the role of Vivendi weigh on the price lists

Telecom still under tension today in Piazza Affari (with a drop of 2.5 percent in the middle of the session) after the start of the exclusive negotiation with the American fund Kkr on the sale of the network. Decision that reflects not only the address unit reached within the board led by Peter Labriola, but also the climate that has been created on the dossier within the Meloni government. After months of even uncontrolled declarations, in the initial phase of the executive, Palazzo Chigi then assumed a new aplomb and the (right) detachment from decisions that must be taken in full autonomy by the board of a listed group, only to then assert a power of interdiction with the golden power. But there is also another more objective reason: the competing offer from Cdp-Macquarie, which in theory should have been the one most supported by the government, could not stand due to antitrust problems and on the part of Vivendi, which is the main shareholder of Telecom with 23 per cent, they were never there are concrete alternatives.

Indeed, precisely the position of the French media group led by Vincent Bolloré, which continues to reiterate its opposition to the sale of the infrastructure, which would be worth at least 6-7 billion more than what was offered by Kkr, without, however, indicating another way to reducing the debt by 25 billion and relaunching the business model, was difficult to understand, helping to pave the way for the American fund, whose offer was judged by the Tim board to be the best in terms of “executability and relative timing”. Just in the days when Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was smoothing out the differences with French President Macron, (anonymous) officials of the Italian government expressed “profound irritation” to the Financial Times over Vivendi’s “tacitly obstructive” opposition. In the series, what the French want to do is not understood and in the meantime it’s good that we move forward. Which does not mean that the government has a preference for Kkr, but it does mean a tacit go-ahead to Telecom’s board of directors to get out of a stalemate and take the game to a more advanced step, where the cards the fund has will be seen in hand and its real intention to open the structure of the newco that will manage the Telecom network to companies close to the Italian state is verified, it can be the CDP itself – subject to incompatibility due to the fact that it holds control of Open Fiber – or the F2i infrastructure fund, of which the Cassa has 14 per cent, or even both. Having obtained the mandate of the board, Labriola has free hands to start an exclusive negotiation with KKr for the sale of the three-month Netco. Negotiations aimed at obtaining an exclusive offer by 30 September and perhaps even improvements to the proposal itself which, with increases, has come to be worth a total of 23 billion euros. It is not excluded that margins exist because Vivendi could be right on one point and that is that private equity funds are famous for adopting very aggressive strategies in terms of maximizing profits when they buy an asset.

The impression, however, is that more than the question of price, the willingness-ability of Kkr to open up to subjects who can guarantee an Italian contribution to the governance of “a national telecommunications network covering all areas of the country in a of competition”, as the minister of enterprises defined it yesterday, Adolfo Urso. In the meantime, however, the unknown factor remains Vivendi and the actions it could implement to counter this path. It is no coincidence that Moody’s spoke of an “uncertain outcome” and a “long process” adding, however, that “if the separation of the network goes ahead, there is the potential for a substantial reduction of Telecom Italia’s debt”. And it is precisely the continuation of this condition of uncertainty that is once again penalizing the stock of the telephone company.