The survey, inflation and war scare 8 out of 10 Italians. Thus the social climate has worsened in a year – Corriere.it

2022 recorded a clear worsening of the social climate, especially when compared with 2021, i.e. with the year of recovery of normalcy after the massive vaccination campaign, the year of the significant increase in the gross domestic product, the year of the government of (almost) national unity led by an authoritative personality like Mario Draghi who gave the country international prestige and consideration, the year of numerous victories in the sports arena (from European football to Olympic medals), the year in which the optimists about Italy’s personal future prevailed over the pessimists. Well, all of this came to an end following two events that occurred at the beginning of the year and conditioned the sentiment of Italians: the return of inflation and the conflict in Ukraine which after the pandemic have further undermined the sense of security of Italians, jeopardizing their purchasing power and energy independence.

The themes

Italy’s priorities, spontaneously mentioned by the people interviewed in our survey (they were asked to name three), focus above all on economic and employment issues (84%up 9% compared to December 2021) and those of welfare and ofsupport (55%), more than doubled after one year (24%); to follow, spaced out, we find the theme of functioning of institutions and the political situation (24%progressively decreasing since 2019 when it reached 43%); the environment (22%) nearly quadrupled in five years; healthcare (21%), halved compared to 2021; immigration (18%) and the safety (13%), both down sharply compared to 2018, when they were at the center of the political and media debate.

The territories

The priorities in your area of ​​residence are a little different with the exception of economic topics who stay in first place (49% of citations, up by five points compared to the end of 2021) and precede three issues that are on the same level: mobility and infrastructure (34%), the environment (33%) and the welfare (33%, more than doubled); then the functioning of institutions and the local political situation (20%down six points), the security (19%increasing), healthcare (12%in flexion) e immigration (stable at 9%).

The focus on the economy

The economy, therefore, is at the top of the agenda of priorities of Italians and in this regard, inflation is a cause for concern for four out of five citizens (79%) while only the 7% declares himself little or no concern. According to the interviewees, this is not a passing phenomenon, just the 28% is of the opinion that the price increase will last for a maximum of one yearthe 31% he is convinced it will last from one to two years and another 21%more pessimistic, predicts that it will last well over two years. These predictions will inevitably have an impact on people’s purchasing and consumption behaviors.

The attack on Moscow

And, still on the subject of concerns, the war in Ukraine is a cause for concern for three out of four Italians (28% very worried and 47% quite worried) and from the very beginning of hostilities fear concerns more the economic consequences (53%) compared to the risk of extension of the conflict involving Italy
(19%) or the increase ofarrival of refugees (15%). The continuation of the war brought about a progressive change in the opinions of the Italians, most of whom (55%) initially declared itself in favor of sanctions against Russia despite the increase in the prices of some food products and the cost of energy, against the 31% Of against. Today it is reduced consensus for sanctions (46%) and it’s increased opposition (37%). And the position with respect to the countries at war has also changed: if in March the 57% declared to be on the side of Ukraine, the 38% did not take a stand and the 5% sided with the Russians, today the relative majority (47%up 9%) declares that he does not support either of the two countriesthe 45% (down by 12%) is closer to Ukraine el8% to Russia. A sort of utilitarian pacifism seems to prevail which disregards the merits of the affair and demands that the parties involved cease hostilities to avoid major economic troubles for our country already severely tried by the pandemic and inflation.

Forecasts

What future awaits us? In the short term, the pessimists prevail, given that the 38% predicts that the country’s economic situation in the next six months will worsen against the 26% which predicts an improvement and the 25% which it believes will remain unchanged. Things are better if we consider a wider time horizon (3 years): in this case the optimists (43%) prevail over the pessimists (23%). And from the point of view of personal economic prospects, the share of those who expect a worsening in the next six months (34%) compared to optimists (24%).

The Coronavirus

And what happened to Covid in the opinions of Italians? Although it has not yet been eradicated, the virus today appears less aggressive in the eyes of citizens: almost one in two (47%) believes that with the right precautions and with the help of vaccines, Covid no longer represents a threat and the 14% he is of the opinion that the pandemic is essentially over. Overall the 61% (share doubled compared to December 2021) is convinced that the worst is behind us while the 6% he is more alarmist and believes that the worst is yet to come. The news coming from China these days is not very reassuring and could have an impact on the perception of the situation and on the consequent behaviours. In summary, after almost three years of the pandemic, with the return of inflation and the critical issues associated with the energy crisis, feelings of fatigue have increased, the demand for protection has increased and hopes of an overall improvement in the situation have diminished. It is true that the increased saving capacity recorded in 2020 and 2021 with the lockdown and the restrictions adopted to contain the health emergency has allowed many to cope with the increase in costs and not to give up some items of expenditure (for example travel and holidays), but what worries us is the uncertainty of the future.

Melancholy

One of the most recurring words in recent years is «transition», in the various meanings (digital, energy, environmental, work, etc.): it is a word that generates positive expectations but also a feeling of apprehension if one cannot glimpse the landing places , leaving the country “suspended” between a present that worries us and a future that scares us. In the census report this year reference is made to a widespread melancholy that pervades Italians. Melancholy is not anger, resentment or recrimination, it is a sense of sadness and resignation. It is the disenchantment with the possibility of having a more dynamic country, in which inequalities are reduced and the social elevator gets back in motion. It is difficult to identify antidotes to a collective unease which is expressed in pessimism, distrust, the conviction of being left alone, left to oneself. Perhaps it is worth reflecting on the “therapeutic” role that the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (wisely named by the European institutions Next Generation EU) could have, provided that we are able to tell with conviction that Italy will have if we know how to make it happen.