The stock exchanges today, 27 September. S&P to Italy: “Difficult choices for the new government”. The spread goes up again
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MILAN – European markets try to put recession fears behind them, taking off after the cautious session in Asia. The indications on the openings are also positive on Wall Street, for the moment, after the -1.1% of the Dow last night with the official entry into the “bear market“, or a loss of 20% from the previous peak. It remains a very complicated junction on the markets, with the case-pound which continues to take the front pages: according to the Bloomberg, the bets of traders who see it at 1 with the dollar have increased, after Monday’s lows of 1.035. It is no better on equities, where Goldman Sachs launched his alert: better “underweight” the shares in the strategic portfolio for the next three months, given that the rise in real yields and the bogeyman of the recession suggest that the correction is not over yet. And the bond was also sold, with the yields of Treasury which went a step from 3.9% to the highest since 2010.
In Italy we continue to look to the post-vote: yesterday in the late evening the S&P rating agency he commented on Fdi’s clear statement, noting that Giorgia Meloni’s government is faced with “difficult choices” in the context of the European recession and high debt. The budgetary room for maneuver is “limited” for Italy between a debt that should settle at just under 138% at the end of 2022 and a deficit forecast this year at 6.3%. “Despite this, we do not anticipate imminent budgetary risks from the transition to the new government”, observes S&P, predicting a “mild recession” for Italy in 2023 with GDP falling by 0.1%. For 2024, GDP is expected to grow by 1.5%. The spread meanwhile continues to signal tension: upon reopening the differential touches 250 basis points. And today is the first day of auctions for the Meloni-era Treasury.
An upward start for Piazza Affari and the other EUs
An upward start for Piazza Affari, with the Ftse Mib index advancing by 0.89% to 21,395 points. Leading the lists of the old continent is Frankfurt, which rises by 0.89%. Paris earns 0.63%. London is more cautious, growing by 0.37%.
On Piazza Affari, Nexi rises by an abundant 4% after the presentation of the industrial plan: “Strong growth and cash generation, with revenues and EBITDA expected to grow by about 9% on average per year and 14% on average per year in the period” are expected 2021-2025; normalized Eps (earning per share) increase equal to + 20% annual average in the period 2021-2025; over 2.8 billion excess cash generated in the period 2023-2025 to pursue further opportunities to create value for all shareholders “.
On the other hand, the Mps price continues not to be made, with a theoretical decrease of over 20 percentage points following the (always theoretical) -34% recorded on Monday, the day on which the reverse stock split became effective, a preliminary operation for the capital increase, and in which Mps was unable to make a single exchange in Piazza Affari.
Problems in the Nord Stream, gas on the rise
The price of gas starts to rise and at the Ttf in Amsterdam travels at 176.995 euros per megawatt hour, marking a growth of 1.82%. Problems were reported yesterday at Nord Stream 1, with a pressure loss in the pipeline. Although it is not supplying gas to Europe, the news exacerbates tensions.
The spread rises again: 249 points
The BTP-Bund spread rises to 249 basis points at the start of trading, up by about seven points compared to yesterday’s close, before falling back to 244 points. Our ten-year yield rises to 4.578%, up about 4 basis points.
Tokyo rebounds, up 0.5%
Closing up for the Tokyo stock exchange which gained 0.5% at 26571.87 points. The financial center was buoyed by the search for bargains after the fall the day before, but still clouded by fears of global economic deterioration linked to monetary tightening. On the one hand, that is, as Okasan online securities commented in a note, there was a technical rebound, on the other hand “the weakness of the New York Stock Exchange of the day before” made itself felt, which influenced investor sentiment. in Japan.
China, corporate profits down
The profits of Chinese industrial companies fell at a faster pace in the January-August period, due to the new wave of restrictions and closures linked to the Covid pandemic that affected the Asian country. To this must be added the collapse of the real estate market. Domestic demand was also negatively affected by heat waves that slowed down the activity of factories.
Profits fell by 2.1% in the first eight months of 2022 compared to the previous year, after a 1.1% decline recorded between January and July, according to data from the National Statistical Office. Analysts say there is little chance China will loosen its zero-Covid policy ahead of the October Communist Party Congress.
The euro starts up but not far from its 22-year lows
The euro starts to rise and remains at its 22-year lows against the dollar, weakened by fears of recession in the eurozone. The single European currency moves around 0.9640 against the greenback and around 139.35 against the yen. The pound also dates back to an all-time low of 1.0384 against the dollar yesterday, forcing the Bank of England to say it is closely monitoring the situation. The exchange rate between the British and the US currency is just below 1.08.
Positive futures for Europe and Wall Street
Wall Street futures move higher. The contract on the Dow Jones rises by 0.63%, the contract on the S&P 500 by 0.68% and the contract on the Nasdaq by 0.69%.
Positive indications also from part of the European stock exchanges, suggesting a possible start in positive territory. In particular, the contract on the London FTSE index rose by 0.26%, while the one on the Dax in Frankfurt rose by 0.67%.
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