The increases threaten the growth of exports: here are the sectors and territories most affected

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The worsening of the energy shock compromises the growth of exports (+ 21% in the first seven months of the year according to Istat) which is giving a breath of fresh air to Italian companies, caught between the effects of the war, energy costs and materials first skyrocketing, with inflation threatening supplies and consumer confidence. The future scenario, confirmed by the Confindustria Study Center report released on Saturday 8 October, is, moreover, that of a strong slowdown in foreign trade: after double-digit growth in 2022 (+ 10.3%), exports will brake sharply (+ 1.8%) in 2023.

They slow down the energy-intensive territories

The first signs of the change of pace, in fact, are already there and come from manufacturing. Above all, the focus on territories emerges: the elaborations of the Study Center of the Guglielmo Tagliacarne Chambers of Commerce carried out for Il Sole 24 Ore on Istat and Terna data show that between the first and second quarter 2022 the export race began a slight slowdown: the balance between the two trend increases recorded compared to the same period of the previous year is equal to -0.5 per cent. And it is more pronounced in the provinces that consume high levels of electricity: here exports in value – which, it must be said, incorporate the effects of rising costs and inflation – have gone from a trend growth of + 22% on a annual in the first quarter to + 20.8% in the second quarter (-1.2%).

On the other hand, the less energy-intensive provinces continue to grind foreign sales, registering an increasing trend between the two quarters under comparison (+ 3.4%): between January and March, exports rose by 25% compared to the corresponding period of the year. last year, while in the second quarter growth reached +28 per cent. “On a general level, the trend of Italian exports in 2022 is better than expected,” explains Gaetano Fausto Esposito, economist and general manager of the Centro Studi Tagliacarne.

“The energy-intensive sectors, however – he continues – are the most exposed: already in the second quarter of the year they recorded their first negative effects and, contrary to other sectors that are cutting margins to maintain certain markets, they began to contract volumes of export”. The issue of energy prices and raw materials greatly affects the performance of sales on foreign markets (as well as imports) but also weighs on production: “In some cases they grew by 40 percent, but the final effect on the exported product it is 12-13 percent “.

The boom of Ascoli Piceno

In the provincial map of Italian manufacturing – which in 2021 moved about one fifth of the national GDP – the positive performance of Ascoli Piceno stands out, where pharmaceutical and chemical industries and producers of leather goods are concentrated: the export trend of the province has increased by 330.6% between the first and second quarters, reaching sales of over three billion euros from April to June.