The ghost of Le Pen. Because the crisis between Meloni and Macron signals a problem between Meloni and Salvini

Pride and good judgment. This, hindsight, suggests to Giorgia Meloni to hold back, and it is not easy for her, from the instinct that would be natural for her: to reply, to bargain. “We won’t be the ones to exaggerate the tones,” she says instead. But that, pride, requires you to keep a certain “posture”, as you say. And therefore it is Antonio Tajani who dictates the line: “We demand an official apology from the French government”, says the Foreign Minister. Which is a way of showing oneself adamant, but also aware that, in this strange tussle, Rome and Paris both have to lose. This is why Meloni bites the brakes, preaches caution. For this reason, as well as that of “saboteurs within the French government itself”, the ghost evoked between Montecitorio and Palazzo Chigi has a name and surname: Marine Le Pen. Intercom Matteo Salvini?

After all, Francesco Lollobrigida has been convinced of this for some time: “In Paris they attack us to hit Le Pen. But he is not our ally. Indeed, it is no coincidence that we were careful not to support it in the recent French elections”. The Minister of Agriculture already said this some time ago, when he personally made an effort to facilitate a reconciliation with cordial visits with Ambassador Christian Masset. And re-read in the light of the brawl of these hours, certain reflections make us think.

Because in effect, as in the case of the Ocean Viking in November, this time too the incident between Rome and Paris is propitiated by Le Pen. It was his protégé, the new leader of the Rassemblement National, Jordan Bardella, who went to Menton, denounced the “invasion” by migrants trying to cross the border from Italy at Ventimiglia, ranted against “the immobility of Macron who does nothing to stop this massacre”, to incite voters and followers against “the bankruptcy of the French state”. “In essence – representatives of En Marche explain to us – he is reproaching the French government for not doing what Meloni accuses the French government of being inhumane for: that is, rejections at the border. Bizarre, isn’t it?”

And in short, it is on this sovereign short-circuit that the Minister of the Interior, Gérard Darmanin, questioned on live television on Bardella’s accusations, dwells. “This extraordinary influx of migrants to Menton occurs because Mrs. Meloni, with the far-right friends that Le Pen has chosen, is unable to solve the migration problem on which she was elected”. And it will also be an objective observation of the facts, but in the diplomatic etiquette between two countries that would like to be allies, it is a sensational stumbling block. That’s enough for Tajani and Meloni to feel. They agree to stall, at first. At stake is a dinner, the one between the Foreign Minister and his counterpart Catherine Colonna scheduled in Paris for the evening, which should initiate the reconciliation in view of the visit that the FdI leader is planning for mid-month to the Elysée . It is a rapprochement, the one between Meloni and Macron, from which strategic interests pass for both, in the European negotiations. Starting with those on the Stability Pact, where you have to hold on to the shock force of a Germany that preaches a rigorist squeeze. “The truth is that we need everything right now except further divisions”, says Guido Crosetto not by chance.

Also for this reason, the Farnesina decided to wait, convinced as they are that Darmanin’s improvident exit should be read as the act of a wing of the French government that responds only in part to Macron’s wishes. Well poisoners, in short. Dinner in Paris is at first “frozen”. It is decided to cancel it when, after some informal exchanges, a certain indifference transpires from Paris. The press release from the French embassy in Rome, which reaffirms the common interest in the search for a shared solution on the migration dossier but without making any mention of Darmanin’s words, is seen in Palazzo Chigi as the seal of the crisis. At least for now.

However, the encumbrance of Le Pen remains. And he will stay, it seems, for a long time. Because Macroni’s bet, more or less explicit, is clear: betting on the weakening of Meloni to defuse the nationalist threat of the RN, demonstrate the inconsistency of the ultra-right to the test of reality. And certainly Meloni will not pronounce, especially if asked, any apostasy towards Le Pen; but she, too, is not happy to end up crushed in a perverse game of banks. Distance yourself from the French leader? “Perhaps this would be smart to do”, they whisper inside FdI. “To reiterate that it has nothing to do with us, that in fact in Brussels we are with the Conservatives, not with the Eurosceptics”. Message to be delivered to Salvini. Who, however, while reflecting on the European destinies of the League, is not at all willing to abandon his “friend Marine”. If the one with the Germans of AfD is a marriage of interests, and can be sacrificed, the one with Le Pen is a marriage based on mutual esteem. “And I don’t betray my friends”, repeats the deputy prime minister. Pride here too. Good judgement? Maybe.

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• Valerio Valentini

• Born in L’Aquila, in 1991. Grew up in Collemare, up there in the Apennines. Classical high school diploma, degree in Modern Literature at the University of Trento. Al Foglio since 2017. I wrote a book, “Gli 80 di Camporammaglia”, published by Laterza, with which I won the Campiello Opera Prima award in 2018. I like good books and good cinema. And cycling, everything, even the bad stuff.