The GDP that goes beyond expectations is a harsh warning on the Pnrr

Growth in the first quarter of +0.5 percent. Amazed analysts. But in order not to miss the train of growth, priority must be given to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan: an impulse to building renovations could activate a virtuous relay for the economic system

Open to GDP. Long live the Italian rebound. The gross domestic product has long accustomed us to surprises and to surprise analysts. And the first data referring to 2023 revives tradition: Reuters provided a forecast of +0.2%, other more optimistic ones went as far as +0.3% but no one would have bet a cent on +0.5% in the first quarter on the last of 2022. But that’s how it went and the official press release from Istat speaks of contributions from all sectorsdomestic demand and net exports, industry and services. The comparison with our partners and cousins ​​is also particularly flattering because only Spain recorded the same pace (+0.5%) while Germany saw the index remain unchanged and France grew more slowly (+0.2%). The comparison with twelve months ago shows us +1.8% for Italy and at this point the growth achieved for the current year marks an encouraging +0.8%. “And since it is easy to predict an economic expansion in the central quarters of 2023 equal to 0.2/0.3% this means that the Italian GDP could grow by at least 1% this year, with upside risks” he commented Paolo Mameli of the Studies and Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo. Just to have some terms of comparison it will be worth remembering how the government had thrown its heart over the obstacle and forecast +1% in the Def while Prometeia had indicated +0.7% and last autumn the Bank of Italy had judged the performance in 2023 more pessimistically (+0.3%) while the IMF even went so far as to forecast a GDP in negative territory.