The Eurozone is growing but will now be more demanding on debt

The Commission has revised its estimates upwards, confirming that a recession will be avoided. But there is a hidden danger for the Italian government: the deficit. The request to governments is to do more to reduce it

Brussels. The European Commission has revised growth estimates have risen for the eurozone and for Italy in 2023, confirming that recession will be avoided despite Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. According to the Commission, inflation also passed its peak at the end of 2022 and, albeit slowly, will approach 2 per cent in the next two years, the target sought by the European Central Bank with its record monetary tightening. “The EU economy entered 2023 in a healthier than expected situation and looks set to avoid a recession,” said the commissioner Paul Gentiloni. Both the euro area and Italy are expected to experience growth in the 0.8 percent this year, half a point more than estimated in November. But behind the good economic news there is a danger for the government of Giorgia Meloni. The improvement in the economic scenario will prompt the Commission to ask member states to do more to reduce deficits and debt. Furthermore, as the debate on the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact heats up, the Nordic countries are less inclined to make concessions on a relaxation of the rules.