the Emirates evaluate the exit – Corriere.it

The United Arab Emirates are internally discussing the possibility of leaving OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. To report the news Wall Street Journal. Abu Dhabi’s exit would shake the cartel of producing countries, endangering its power on world oil markets. At the basis of the (possible) decision are differences with Saudi Arabia on matters of security in Yemen and on issues related to oil. Meanwhile, the backlash on the markets was not long in coming. Oil prices are in sharp decline: West Texas Intermediate futures drop 1.93% to 76.65 dollars a barrel, while Brent falls 1.89% to 83.15 dollars a barrel.

The background

When last January, Abu Dhabi hosted the summit of Middle Eastern leaders there was a conspicuous absence: the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. But already a month earlier, the United Arab Emirates had skipped an Arab-Chinese summit in Riyadh. Officials had not hidden anything: Prince Mohammed and the president of the Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, have deliberately kept away from each other’s events. The growing rift between neighbors has therefore been known for some time.

The differences

Still formally allies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are at odds on several fronts, competing for foreign investment and influence in global oil markets and at odds over the war in Yemen. The difference with the past is that disagreements that once took place behind closed doors are widening, thus threatening to force us into a rearrangement of alliances in the Persian Gulf, at a time when Iran is trying to exert a increased influence in the region and Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed up crude prices and disrupted OPEC’s decision-making process. There have actually been attempts to ease tensions. The UAE’s National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed al Nahyan made multiple trips to the Saudi kingdom, often failing to secure a meeting with the crown prince. In a February tweet, Anwar Gargash, Sheikh Mohammed’s foreign policy adviser, reaffirmed the UAE’s unity with Saudi Arabia and called the reports of changes in Gulf alliances wrong and only aimed at creating divisions in a time when the region needs solidarity.

The Yemen problem

Last December, the UAE signed a security deal with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government that allows UAE forces to intervene in the country in the event of an imminent threat, train Yemeni forces and deepen cooperation on intelligence. However, Saudi officials have reportedly opposed the security deal, believing the Emiratis are moving against Riyadh’s main goals, namely securing the 800-mile border and halting rocket attacks and Houthis drones. In response, the Saudis have deployed Sudanese forces from the Arab military coalition in areas close to Emirati operations, which Emirati officials have seen as an intimidation tactic. And when Sheikh Mohammed missed a summit with China in Riyadh in December, Saudi Arabia interpreted it as a sign of displeasure from the Emiratis with growing competition in Yemen. But the differences between Saudis and Emiratis are also on energy issues. Within the Saudi-led OPEC, the UAE is being forced to extract less oil than it would be able to, despite the European Union’s long-standing push to pump more. Now the news that the United Arab Emirates are about to leave OPEC, if confirmed, would be a real earthquake, capable of redrawing the map of oil forces.