The Elly Schlein effect drives the Democratic Party in the polls (+2.6 percent) and picks the M5s

The Schlein variable changes the balance between the opposition forces: if so far it could only have been a conjecture, now the first polls are arriving which certify the influence of the new dem secretary on the electoral quotas of centre-left parties. In the latest SWG surveys, disclosed as usual yesterday evening by the La7 news, the Democratic Party is once again Giorgia Meloni’s first contender, standing at 19 percent and marking a leap of more than two and a half points compared to last week’s data (+2.6). Schelin’s election therefore drives the dem, and at the same time erodes consensus in the 5 Star Movement: compared to the previous Monday, it loses almost a point and a half, stopping at just under 16 percent (-1.3). Similarly, Schlein also seems to engulf the electorate of the Green-Italian Left alliance, the second party that has lost the most support after the M5s: the drop is almost one percentage point (-0.8).

Brothers of Italy and the other government forces (Lega and Forza Italia) do not appear to be affected by Schlein’s election. On the contrary: if Giorgia Meloni’s party is stable over 30 percent (30.7)both the Carroccio and Forza Italia show a slight advance, remaining around 8 and 6 per cent (8.8 and 6.6).

These impressions on the flows of the centre-left electorate are also confirmed by another statistic produced by SWG. In the sample of those who declare their preference for the Democratic Party, more than 20 percent say that before Schlein’s election they would no longer have voted in favor of the dem. While the share of “faithful” remains predominant, i.e. those who already voted for Pd when Enrico Letta was at the helm and now expresses his consent also for Schlein. To these is added an almost 30 percent “wait for it”: that is, the slice that to date does not know whether or not he would vote for the Democratic Party, but is waiting to see which political direction the party will take.

To the encouraging numbers of the voting projections, the data on memberships arrived yesterday evening is added. After Schelin’s announcement on the reopening of registrations on Sunday evening on TV hosted by Fabio Fazio, in less than forty-eight hours there would be more than four thousand new members of the Democratic Party. Signs of confidence dictated by a reorientation of the left-wing electorate.