The director of the International Energy Agency warns: “The next winter will be harder”

The alarm related to the energy crisis and the availability of gas storage it will cover the winter season. Not the upcoming one, though, but that one 2023-2024. He is convinced of it the executive director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birolwho in an interview on Repubblica talks about the European situation: “Our estimates tell us that by February 2023 the stocks will have gone from 90 to 25-20 percent. So the question is: how will Europe act in 2023 to refill them up to 80-90 percent so that it can face the winter of 2023-2024? This year the gas that still arrived from Russia also contributed to the storage. In addition, China, which is the main importer of liquefied gas, bought less than expected in 2022 because its economy contracted. But next year there could be an economic recovery and Beijing could go back to filling up with gas, with demand that would increase the price for Europeans “.

The countries of the Union will face the winter that is about to arrive without particular fears: no interruptions to supplies and no blackouts. This is because gas stockpiles have reached around 90 percent. Therefore, in the absence of a significant (and currently unexpected) interruption of supplies, it should arrive in February or March using stocks. However, the alarm is only postponed for a year. And the point is clear: action must be taken now to plan a long-term strategy. Just today Birol will speak to the European energy ministers, gathered in Brussels for yet another summit on the gas crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “Solidity” and “farsightedness”: these will probably be the two keywords of his speech. Regarding the price capinstead, he explains: “Adopting it requires great attention to price dynamics. On the one hand, they want to keep them low to protect consumers and businesses. On the other hand, however, they cannot be too low, otherwise Europe risks being no longer competitive as a buyer of liquefied natural gas on international markets. Finding a balance between these two needs is very delicate and explains the European stalemate“.

Finally, an observation on a comparison that has been repeated several times in recent weeks: the one with the 1973 oil shock, which also led to the birth of the agency that Birol heads today: “There are similarities. But the current one is much larger and more complex. At stake is not only oil, but also gas and electricity generation. Furthermore, energy and geopolitics have never been so connected. This is the first truly global energy crisis“.