The approval of Draghi at 63%. Rises again after the resignation- Corriere.it

No.In analyzing the vote, some commentators emphasized the relationship between the individual political forces and the Draghi government, which would have favored the opponents and penalized the supporters, underlining both the victory of the main opposition party and the good result of the M5S which in recent months had shown critical positions towards the executive, both the lower than expected result of the Democratic Party, considered the most convinced supporter of the government, and of the Third Pole, whose program made explicit reference to the so-called Draghi agenda. This is a completely legitimate but not shareable analysis, in light of the popularity data that the outgoing government has enjoyed since its inauguration. A demonstration of this is today’s poll which shows a further increase in consensus both for the government and for the premier: 59% of Italians express a positive opinion on the executive and 63% on Draghi; the approval rating calculated by comparing the positive and negative judgments, excluding those who do not express themselves, stood at 65 and 69 respectively, in both cases up by 2 points compared to the end of August.

As can be seen from the time series, supporters have always been superior to detractors to a large extent and this represents an element of discontinuity with respect to previous governments which, after the initial support of citizens (the so-called “honeymoon”), have all registered a sharp decline in popularity obtaining more dissent than consent, with the exception of Count II. But there are two other elements of differentiation: the unusual increase in consensus after the resignation (by 7 points and even 10 compared to the end of June) and the transversality of appreciation, just think that the voters of all political forces (with the exception of the minor ones connoted as “anti-system”) mostly express a positive evaluation for Dragons with higher peaks among those of the Third pole (index 94) and of the Pd (93), followed by Lega (75) and Forza Italy (73). It is interesting to note that the consensus is also high among the voters of FdI, the main opposition party (66), which is higher than that expressed by the pentastellati (60); and also among the abstentionists positive judgments prevail (60).

The transversality also concerns demographic characteristics, since satisfaction prevails in all social segments, in particular among males, the less young, the more educated, with a medium-high economic status. The reasons for the premier’s appreciation can be traced back to a plurality of factors starting from the context characterized by the crises to be managed (Covid, war, inflation, energy crisis) which usually lead the majority of citizens to “rely” on those who have responsibility for country guide; then the successes achieved, first of all the vaccination campaign with the gradual return to normality, without forgetting the growth of GDP in 2021 and the increased prestige of Italy on an international scale. And, again, the traits of the image of President Draghi: pragmatism, the institutional profile, the non-belonging to a party and, therefore, the widespread belief that he operated in the interest of the whole country, as well as the facing the future.

In the light of all this, how is the contradiction explained? between the government’s popularity and the electoral outcome that rewarded the opposition? First of all, with the widespread opinion that a government of broad agreements represents an exception dictated by the emergency conditions; although the critical situations have not disappeared, it is probable that the conflicts within the majority have led many voters to consider the season of concord ended and to consider a return to political competition inevitable. But there is a second reason, even more important, and it is the demand for “novelty” represented in 2014 by Renzi’s Pd, in 2018 by Di Maio’s M5S, in 2019 by Salvini’s League. The initial enthusiasm was followed by a sharp decline in popularity which contributed to perpetuating the alternation to the “Italian”, in search of the new. In short, under whose turn it is, forward another (sorry: another), without forgetting the over 16.6 million voters who deserted the polls, most of them voluntarily.