Taxes, the problem of the Meloni government: the cut in the “structural” tax wedge will cost 11 billion, for now there are half of them

ROME – Confirm and make structural the new cut in the tax wedge from 2024 onwards it will cost a lot: almost 11 billion a year. But at the moment, as confirmed by the Def just launched by the government, fiscal spaces come to about half: 5.7 billion, between 4.5 of higher deficit and 1.2 of cuts in ministry spending. The government expects to find the other half of the resources between now and September, when it will have to update the Def with the Nadef, a crucial document for setting up the budget maneuver.

You bet on one greater growth than expected, above 1% of GDP, after a very good first quarter. But above all there is thought to change the nature of the current measure: instead of a cut in social security contributions in the payroll, an equivalent increase in the personal income tax deductions for employees. An operation in line with the tax delegation. And at the same time a vehicle to maneuver in a family key, for that“shock” intervention desired by Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti to boost the birth rate, perhaps by enhancing the deductions for those with children.

Possible covers: fight against tax evasion, VAT, minimum tax

Focus only on the eventual liveliness of the GDP it cannot be the only way to finance the operation. Several options are on the table, not all of them sufficient and some non-structural. For example, one can draw on the tax relief fund, with the fruits of the fight against evasion of 2020 (there are always three years of delay between collection and use). However, the fund is declining, in the projections.

There is a concrete possibility, watched with enormous interest by the government, of implementing the EU directive on multinationals and doing as in the United Kingdom: introducing a minimum domestic tax of 15% on multinationals, equating the tax treatment between the Italian subsidiary of a foreign group and the Italian one of a domestic group. And then the announced – it is not known how feasible – deforestation of tax expenditures, tax rebates in the form of deductions or deductions. A double-edged sword, this one. Because part of the taxpayers could see the tax burden rise rather than fall.

Even the VAT reorganization, foreseen in the fiscal delegation, can bring additional income. But it is incandescent matter, to be handled with care and in successive steps. In the delegation there is also the reference to the “analysis of generalized risk”, the enhanced crossing between databases to make the fight against tax evasion more effective. It is difficult to say whether the government will want to implement it in the autumn and in any case the results are not immediate.

The idea of ​​exploiting the new Stability Pact

The most ambitious idea of ​​all remains: bring tax reform to the European table of the new Stability Pact. Passing it off as a reform that pays for itself because it cuts taxes and increases revenue and therefore can also be financed in deficit. “Even the Pnrr has this feedback logic: that is, it is evaluated not only as an expense, but also for the positive impact on GDP”, explains Alessandro Santoro, economist and professor of Finance at Bicocca. “With the new Pact, the algebraic rules give way to a judgment of the country on 4 or 7 year scenarios. And the reforms weigh heavily”.

So here is the project: a tax reform with a deficit, but self-financed in 7 years with a potential revenue return. It will not be easy to convince Europe. Meanwhile, however, the tax delegation already provides for standardizing the deductions of employees, self-employed and pensioners by acting on the no-tax area. Bringing employees to the level of pensioners means going up from 8,145 to 8,500 euros. Aligning even the self-employed, stuck at 5,500 euros, is decidedly more challenging.

However, this is the path the government is looking at. Which also aims to rise above the 35 thousand euros of gross income now benefiting from the contribution cut. A cut of 4 billion gross of personal income tax, from July to December which is worth 6.28 net of taxes and projected over the year (13 months). The other already in force costs 6.5 gross and 4.6 net. Adding up the net figures, we arrive at 10.88 billion in annual spending. At the moment 13.8 million employees benefit from it: in July they will take from 50 to 100 euros net more than in December. AND from 28 to 70 euros net more than in June. The May Day cut.