Svimez: Puglia at risk of recession in 2023. “GDP at -0.5% and poorer”
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THE 49th report
NoonNovember 28, 2022 – 10:36 am
Recovery interrupted due to inflation and the cost of raw materials. Throughout the South, an estimated 500,000 more people are at risk due to economic difficulties
from Vito Fatiguso
The data is not the best. On the contrary, they represent an alarm bell for those who have to make economic policy decisions. Puglia will close 2022 with a 3.2% GDP growth, but already from 2023 a recession of 0.5% is estimated. This is what emerges from the 49th report of the Svimez on the state of the economy of the South presented in Rome.
The incidence of expensive utility bills
«Svimez – it is written in a press release – estimates that due to the increases in energy and food prices, the incidence of families in absolute poverty could grow by about one percentage point, rising to 8.6%, with strong territorial heterogeneity: + 2.8 percentage points in the South, against 0.3 in the North and 0.4 in the Centre. In absolute values, 760,000 new poor people are estimated to have been caused by the inflationary shock (287,000 households), of which half a million in the South. According to Svimez estimates, the increase in electricity and gas prices translates into a increase in annual bill of 42.9 billion for Italian industrial companies; about 20% (8.2 billion) falls on the industry of the South, whose contribution to the national industrial added value is however less than 10%».
Shooting interrupted
Yet, 2021 was the year of the (interrupted) relaunch. In the South, in fact, the figure for Basilicata appears to be particularly significant (+7.8%); follow Sardinia, Puglia and Campania (respectively (+6.5%, +6.5% and +6.3%); more distant, Calabria (+5.5%), Abruzzo (+5.1%), Sicily (+4, 9%) and Molise (+4.2%).From the sectoral trends observed at regional level, it appears that Calabria (+30.3%), Basilicata (+27.7%) contributed above all to the favorable construction situation in the South %) and Sicily (+27.5%).Always in the South, the best trends in industry in the strict sense involved Molise (+12.4%), Basilicata (+11.3%), Apulia (+9.7%) and Campania (+8.8%); in the services sector, we note the extremely contained growth of Molise (+1.6%), while the values of Sardinia (+5.9%), Basilicata (+5.5%) and Campania are higher than the southern average ( +5.3%).
November 28, 2022 | 10:36
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