Soaring rates, they control mortgages: real estate sales – 2.7%

In the first two months, sales of residential buildings fell by 2.7% compared to the same period of 2022, with a diversified trend across the territory: some provinces show positive changes such as Turin (+3.26%), Bologna (+2.88 %), Bari (+1.14%) and Palermo (+2.11%) while in others decreases were recorded such as Milan (-3.74%), Verona (-1.45%), Rome (-2, 09%), Florence (-5.28%), Naples (-14.9%). This is what emerges from the survey of the National Council of Notaries, on the basis of Notarial statistical data. In particular, the Notariat presented an initial survey carried out in nine large Italian cities regarding the following types of deeds: mortgages, subrogations, sales of residential buildings. The cities in question are Rome, Milan, Naples, Bari, Bologna, Turin, Palermo, Verona, Florence. The sample shows a drop in sales in February 2023 in all cities, except in Turin where transactions are even higher than in January. In the same period of the year, on the mortgage front, there was an average drop of 23.56%, much higher than the drop in real estate transactions. Despite some provinces, such as Verona, showing an almost stationary nature of mortgage applications in January (-0.5%), all cities suffer a double-digit drop, which in Naples in particular is equal to more than a third compared to the two-month period 2022 (-35.4). It should also be noted that the age group that has undergone the smallest reduction is that of the under 36s, probably in consideration of the tax breaks in force until the end of December 2023 for the purchase of a first home and the extension of the first home fund to 80 % expiring on June 30th. On the national average drop in the number of natural persons who have taken out a mortgage, equal to – 21.15%, the 18-35 age group stops at – 19.3% compared to -20.11% of the under 45s, -22.36% of the under 55s and -25.67% of the under 65s up to the peak of -33.3% of the 66-75 age group. In reality, the decline in sales occurs in the month of February and not in January. In fact, the first month of the year records an increase of 5.43% compared to January 2022. It is therefore the drop in sales of 8.68% in February that weighs on the reduction of 2.72% for the two-month period. If, on the other hand, the market between first and second homes in the first two months is analyzed in detail, the data show further particularities. The decrease concerns only first homes which record respectively – 6% for purchases and sales between individuals and – 24% for business purchases while the second home market, both between individuals and between companies, marks a positive figure of 2.82% respectively and 3.37%. In general, however and as highlighted in the beginning, the real collapse for both types of purchases, whether it is a first or second home between individuals or businesses, occurred in February 2023 (-8.68%). Specifically, there was an 11.7% reduction in purchases of first homes between private individuals, 33.7% of first homes between companies, 3.54% of second homes between individuals and 0.83% of second homes between companies. Mortgages for home purchases in the first two months of 2023 decreased by 23.56% compared to the same period of 2022. In January, the decrease in bank loans amounted to 15.8% to accentuate in February with a decrease by 29.3%. Recalling the trend of the sales market which, however, marked a decrease of only 2.72% in the two months (+5.43% in January and – 8.68%) it is impressive how the number of mortgages granted, and in percentage disbursed capital is down sharply, as if to highlight the fact that people are buying houses more with their own capital than in the past due to the sharp increase in interest rates. Consequently, the number of natural persons who have taken out a mortgage also decreased (-21.15%), going from -19.3% in the 18-35 age group to a peak of 33.3% in the age range 66-75. Despite the 23.56% drop in the number of mortgages (from 61,581 in the first two months of 2022 to 47,070 in the first two months of 2023), the reduction in disbursed capital is actually lower and is equal to 20.7% (from 10.2 billion in the first two months of 2022 to €8.1 billion in the first two months of 2023). The difference between these two percentage data is given by a lower reduction equal to 8.46% of mortgages granted for amounts exceeding 500,000 euros compared, for example, to – 20.9% in the range 100,000 – 150,000 euros and – 30.2% of the 150,000 – 200,000 euro range. Finally, there was a reduction of almost 20% in the number of subrogations in the first two months of 2023 compared to the first two months of 2022 (from 2882 to 2310).