Savings, so private banking wants to break through the trillion share of managed assets – Corriere.it

Despite the difficult economic environment, in the last months of 2022, wealth managed by private banking marked a recovery, closing the year better than expected and bringing assets under management to 994 billion euro. Total funding in 2022 amounted to 42 billion euros, more than double that recorded overall by other channels (such as retail banks, networks, post offices and insurance agents). These are the data presented at the 2023 Assembly of the Italian Private Banking Association (Aipb). And the forecasts for the current year are optimistic. «Although the macroeconomic and financial picture remains complex, we see some comforting signs, for example a less pronounced slowdown in economic growth and a less restrictive monetary policy – explains the president of Aipb, Andrea Ragaini -. Consequently, we expect a continuation of the recovery in funding recorded in 2022, with a consequent increase in the assets managed by the private sector industries, and an acceleration of financial investments, particularly in the bond sector”.

Risks increase, household financial wealth decreases

The multiple challenges facing the global economy during 2022 so far have had limited effects, even if they have increased financial risks. «In such a context of strong uncertainty, the global economy has managed to remain positive and the Italian one has recorded decisive growth – continues Ragaini -. Instead, on the international financial markets all these factors have caused high volatility, provoking strong instability, especially on government bonds which have had negative yields as never happened in the last fifty years. And the equity indices have recorded a downward trend compared to the all-time highs of 2021 ». The financial wealth of households also fell, although remaining above the levels of 2020 with 3,339 billion euros, but with -3.3% on 2021. «The negative effect of the financial markets and the slowdown in savings flows weighed on this aspect, determined by the reduction in the propensity to save, which fell to 7.9% compared to the 13% recorded in 2021. For 2023, we expect that the it still remains complex, but we see some glimmers of improvement», says the president of Aipb. Today, in fact, the fears of recession seem to have been overcome and the GDP growth forecasts confirmed: in Italy of +0.7%; in the EU +0.6%; in the USA +0.7%. Furthermore, it seems that inflation is progressively slowing down (although in April Italy and the Eurozone showed new increases), and consequently the monetary policy of the central banks is becoming less aggressive.

Stocks and bonds recover

Equity markets are also expected to recover in the first few months of 2023, supported in particular by expectations of higher earnings due to the lower rise in interest rates. The less restrictive monetary policies, the maintenance of business margins and the reduction in energy costs, according to Prometeia data, suggest an average annual growth of the stock markets between 10% and 20% in the three-year period 2023-2025. Furthermore, a gradual normalization of the interest rate curves is envisaged, with expected short-term yields falling as early as 2023, while long-term yields will continue to rise until the end of the year. «In this context, we expect an acceleration of investments, in particular towards the bond sector – says Ragaini -. The added value of private consultancy, the result of structured processes, qualified skills, the ability to build investment solutions based on the needs of our clients and to adapt portfolios according to sudden changes in the scenario, will allow clients to take full advantage of the evolution of the economic context”. In conclusion, for the private sector, consistent growth is expected in 2023, greater than that of the other operators in the system (+5.3% against 1.8%) bringing assets under management to 1,047 billion euros. This acceleration would allow the private sector to return above the levels of 2021, once again showing the sector’s ability to quickly recover the losses suffered in an exceptionally negative year such as 2022.