Recession, the indices that push it away and the confidence that returns to Europa- Corriere.it

The latest data seem to remove the specter of recession in Europe. The eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0 points in February from 50.3 points in January, while second the final data for the tertiary sector the index jumped to 52.7 points from 50.8 points in January, even at most for eight months. Overall, this was the second consecutive monthly expansion in euro zone services sector output, albeit lower than the flash reading of 53 points.

The Markit PMI index, an acronym that stands for Purchasing managers index, is one of the main global economic indicators and is based on monthly surveys conducted on a group of selected companies, to represent the main world economies and those in the developing world. An index above 50 signals a phase of economic expansion, below this threshold a phase of contraction. This is why the stock exchanges in Europe are all positive in the last session of the week.

The acceleration of growth, together with the gradual slowdown of inflation, which fell to 8.5% on average in the euro area in Februaryfrom 8.6% in January (but it was 9.2% in December), thanks to the fall in energy prices, lead investors to believe that the European Central Bank may review the pace of the monetary tightening in progress, after the new increase of 50 points already announced for March 16th. ECB President Christine Lagarde keeps repeating that the ECB’s action will be guided by data. And the latest data bodes well.

In particular, France stands out as a locomotive among the major economies of the euro zone, with a PMI index in February rising to 53.1 points from 49.1 in January, exceeding expectations for 52.8 points.

In Italy last month the PMI services index rose to 51.6 pointsalso in this case touching the highest value for 8 months, thanks to a new strong increase in the volume of new orders. Even if the market was betting on even greater growth, up to 53.1. The Istat data on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 also contributes to the optimism about our country, which recorded a change of -0.1% on the previous quarter and of +1.4% on the fourth quarter of 2021. Based on the 2022 boost, the acquired change in GDP for 2023, which would be obtained if all quarters this year recorded a zero change, therefore equal to +0.4%. Therefore recession averted.

The increase in Germany was more containedwhere the services PMI index in February reached 50.9 points, compared to 50.7 points in January.

everywhere, for, increases confidence in the future and this is a key ingredient to push companies to invest and hire more.