Polls, Pd down by one point a month. Letta’s effort to anticipate (not too much) the congress
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The 5 Star Movement really seems to have surpassed the Pd, or at least it is permanently alongside. As demonstrated by the Youtrend/Agi “supermedia” carried out on 17 November (it is a weighted average of the national polls on voting intentions of the previous 15 days, from Swg to Tecnè, from Noto to Demos to EMG): in 15 days the party by Giuseppe Conte it reached 17.4% gaining 0.8%, while the Pd dropped to 16.8% losing 0.6%. All while what should be the common enemy, namely the party of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni Fratelli d’Italia, is now at 30% from the 26% collected on 25 September.
If the Pd in the congressional ford loses one point a month
If we consider that in the elections the Democratic Party took 19% of the votes and the M5s 15.6%, the Democrats seem to have lost 2.2% of the votes in just under two months and the pentastellati seem to have gained 1.8 %.
“If the trend continues – is the bitter consideration of a dem executive – in four months we will have reached 12.4 …”. Yes, because initially the final primaries of the congress had been set for March 12th. And it is clear that a Pd in the midst of a “constituent” congressional discussion at times philosophical (who we are, where we go and why we go there) and moreover with a de facto leader who has resigned and therefore only a ferryman – Enrico Letta clarified from the day after the electoral defeat that he would not be a candidate to succeed himself – it is a sort of no man’s land exposed to the blows of the former allies of the broad field who aim to dry up the electoral basin of the dem as much as possible: on the one hand the M5s, which aims at the more leftist and “antagonistic” votes, on the other the third pole of Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi, which aims at the so-called reformist votes of the liberal-democratic and Catholic area.
Letta and the difficulty of anticipating the primaries from March to January
Hence the effort of Sisyphus that Letta has made, in recent weeks, to try to anticipate the times. In the belief that only a new leadership will now be able to relaunch the party and bring it back to the center of the opposition to the right-center government led by Meloni. From the outset, the secretary would have wanted the congressional process to end at the end of January: in this way, the candidacies would have been formalized by Christmas, immediately starting the confrontation, including the media, between the main competitors. And the history of the congresses of the Democratic Party teaches that when candidates take the field, the polls pay off. While a discussion entirely focused on the philosophical themes of the “constituent” phase would be difficult to understand from the outside and certainly unattractive.
The compromise of the currents on February 19: will it be enough?
But at the end of January you can’t. Too early for dem executives and current bosses who fear being “scrapped” by the new leader. Especially if the new leader were to be the governor of Emilia Romagna Stefano Bonaccini, who relies on a dense network of administrators and mayors and has so far only been supported in the party by the former Renzians of the reformist Base, the current headed by the former Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini. Bonaccini, on the other hand, made it clear in good time that a radical change in the ruling class is needed. This explains why many leaders who do not come from the PCI-DS history like Dario Franceschini are aiming, in the hope of influencing it, on the new deputy Elly Schlein, who has taken the field in recent days with a very leftist and “movementist” platform. In short, more time is needed to try to stop Bonaccini’s race. Hence the compromise of February 19, with the official nominations set for the end of January. Two more months of agony?
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