Political polls: the Berlusconi effect is over, Forza Italia collapses and the League takes off

Forza Italia suffers the repercussions of the effect Berlusconi: one month after the death of the founder, the blue party, now led by Antonio Tajani, loses the consensus he had won on the emotional wave that followed the death and funeral of the Knight. And the aftershock in the centre-right coincides with a specular growth of an internal competitor to the coalition: it is not the Fdi of Giorgia Meloni, which indeed continues to lose a few decimals, but the League of Matthew Salvini.

These are the elements that emerge from this week’s Supermedia Youtrend: Forza Italia manages to lose 0.7 percent, the League takes home exactly the same percentage. In the overall calculation, the center-right loses half a point, which is the result of the decline of the Melonian party (0.3 per cent less, but confirmed first place overall with 28.6 per cent) and that of Noi Moderati (0. 2 percent).

The Democratic Party is gnawing at something, which registers a positive sign, albeit by only one tenth, and confirms itself as the second party with 20.3 percent. Plus 0.1 percent also for the M5S, in third place.

Here is the detail, the changes in brackets indicate the deviation from the Supermedia two weeks ago (June 29, 2023)

SUPERMEDIA LISTS

FDI 28.6% (-0.3)

PD 20.3 (+0.1)

M5S 15.9 (+0.1)

Alloy 9.4 (+0.7)

Forza Italia 7.5 (-0.7)

Action 3.8 (+0.2)

Greens/Left 3.1 (+0.1)

Italia Viva 3.0 (=)

+Europe 2.4 (+0.1)

Italexit 1.9 (=)

Popular Union 1.7 (+0.2)

We Moderates 0.8 (-0.2)

SUPERMEDIA COALITIONS 2022

Centre-right 46.3 (-0.5)

Centre-left 25.7 (+0.2)

M5S 15.9 (+0.1)

Third Pole 6.8 (+0.2)

Italexit 1.9 (=)

Others 3.4 (=)

NOTE: The Supermedia YouTrend/Agi is a weighted average of national polls on voting intentions. Today’s weighting, which includes surveys carried out from 29 June to 12 July, was carried out on 13 July on the basis of the sample size, the date of creation and the data collection method.

The surveys considered were carried out by the institutes Demopolis (date of publication: July 4), Euromedia (July 12), Quorum (July 10), SWG (July 3 and 10) and Tecnè (July 1 and 8).

The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it